Update: Infographic updated on October 18, 2012 to reflect new polling data.
We launched an electoral vote model for the 2012 presidential election that calculates Mitt Romney’s probability of winning the presidency to be at only 31%. We update it daily based on new polling data, so be sure to check back, but one thing is clear: the odds are not in Romney’s favor.
NerdWallet’s new election infographic spells out why the numbers behind the Electoral College system pretty dramatically favor a win for Obama in 2012. Despite neck-in-neck public polling at a national level, when it comes to counting the votes that really matter we find that Romney only has a 31% chance of making it to the White House:
Of the electoral votes available in the twelve states generally accepted as up for grabs, Romney will have a hard time getting as many of them as he needs to win. The election infographic demonstrates how the votes are projected to add up in the key states, summing up the key findings of NerdWallet’s statistical Election Model. The model examines the accuracy of over 1500 historical presidential polls in predicting outcomes for the last two elections, and its results reflect over 30,000 model simulations based on these outcomes. Learn more by viewing the NerdWallet Election Odds Model.