What Would the Trump Economy Look Like?

The former president’s proposals have been short on details. Experts say some of the ideas he has floated could actually reignite inflation and worsen the deficit.

Updated · 11 min read
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Written by Anna Helhoski
Senior Writer
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Edited by Rick VanderKnyff
Senior Assigning Editor
 
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Updated on Sept. 3.

Harris and Trump to debate on Sept. 10

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have agreed to debate on Sept. 10. The broadcast will be hosted by ABC.

Vice presidential-hopefuls Tim Walz and J.D. Vance also agreed to debate on Oct. 1. The broadcast will be hosted by CBS.

Who is leading in the polls?

The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (Sept. 3) shows a shift in consumers’ election outlook: In July, 51% of consumers expected Trump to win the election compared to President Joe Biden (37%). In August, after Biden stepped down and Harris accepted the Democrats’ nomination, consumers changed their expectations: 54% say they anticipate Harris will win the election compared to Trump (36%).

  • The Economist/YouGov: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% (Sept. 1-3).

  • TIPP Insights: Harris leads Trump 48% to 45% nationally, but Trump leads Harris by more than 50% in four swing states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania (Aug. 28-Aug. 30). 

  • Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris leads Trump (39% to 36%) (Aug. 22-26).

  • Morning Consult: Harris leads Trump 48% to 44% (Aug. 16-19).

  • CBS/YouGov: Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% nationally, 50% to 50% in battleground states (Aug. 14-16). 

  • The New York Times/Siena College: Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% in three battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (Aug. 5-9).  

  • NPR,PBS News/Marist College: Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% (Aug. 1-4).

  • Daily Kos/Civiqs: Harris leads Trump 49% to 45% (July 27-30).

  • Ipsos/Reuters: Harris leads Trump 43% to 42% (July 26-28).

Wharton analysis: Trump’s plans would add $4.1 trillion to deficit

A new analysis says that former President Donald Trump’s economic proposals could add an estimated $4.1 trillion to the national deficits over a decade. The Penn Wharton Budget Model, released on Aug. 26, looked at Trump’s various proposals on taxes and tariffs including his plans to extend 2017 tax cuts; eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits; as well as his plans to include a 10% across-the-board tariff on foreign imports. It does not include Trump’s proposal to get rid of taxes on tips.

The analysis found that there could likely be initial financial gains on a macro and personal-level as a result of Trump’s proposals. But over a longer term would result in lower GDP, lower wages and a higher financial burden for future generations.

  • From 2025-2034, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would increase. But over a full 30-year period (until 2054), GDP would decline by 2.1%. 

  • Wages could initially increase, but would stagnate by 2034. Over a total 30-year period, wages would be lower by 1.7% in 2054. 

Households on all income levels would benefit from savings due to Trump’s proposals, in 2026 and 2034. But future generations would bear the brunt of the debt burden to fund tax decreases.

Former President Donald Trump, aiming to win a second term in the 2024 election, is pledging to lower inflation and says he would fix the economy by cutting taxes, instituting import tariffs and more.

Trump has laid out his ideas in broad terms while on the campaign trail. Here are some of the major proposals he has made, along with the opinions of economists and other experts on how those promises could play out.