Buying a House in 2024: What’s Changed?

At the risk of jinxing it, things are looking up for home buyers.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped for three consecutive months (and counting). Competition has calmed down a bit — and inflation has, too. And while we’re still technically in a sellers’ market, the inventory of homes for sale in June reached its highest level in more than four years.

Hoping to buy in 2024? If you’re well prepared with a budget and a mortgage preapproval, you might not even need to knock on wood. Let’s look at the good news, the challenges and the wild cards that remain for home buyers this year.

Good news: Mortgage rates drop to a one-year low

Finally, some relief: In the week ending Aug. 15, 30-year mortgage rates dropped to an average 6.28%, their lowest weekly average since February 2023. That’s welcome news for shoppers who have felt burned by high rates — or maybe even put their house hunt on ice until the cost of borrowing cooled down.

Over the past two years, buyers have been at the mercy of mortgage rates’ meteoric rise, holding on as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed from 3% to nearly 7% in 2022. In October 2023, rates topped 8% for the first time since 2000 — a surprise even many top economists didn’t predict. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to get a mortgage.

To put that in perspective: Let’s say you can afford $1,800 per month in principal and interest. At a 7% interest rate, you could afford to borrow $270,600. But at a 6% interest rate, you could afford to borrow $300,200 — nearly $30,000 more — for the same amount per month. When interest rates go down, home shoppers’ purchasing power goes up.

For now, economic signals suggest more positive news for buyers in the latter half of 2024. Dan Moralez, regional vice president at Dart Bank in Holland, Michigan, points to a cooling economy and a potential cut to the federal funds rate. “All of that stuff really lends itself to mortgage rates getting better and the cost to borrow getting cheaper, which is really good for those people who have maybe sat on the sidelines hoping to see rates get better,” Moralez says.

More good news: It’s nearly certain the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points at its next meeting Sept. 17-18, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of one percent.) While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, the federal funds rate influences the cost of long-term loans, including mortgages.

Your strategy: If you’re ready to buy, jump in now

A potential Fed rate cut is welcome news, but in the meantime, it’s not a reason to put off your search. Changes take time to trickle down, so avoid the self-induced pressure of timing the market perfectly. Instead, focus on shopping within your budget right now.

Also: When rates go down, competition goes up — another reason there’s no time like the present to start house hunting.

Whichever way rates move in the remainder of 2024, you’ll save money if you shop around. Aim to get an estimate from at least three mortgage lenders. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimates borrowers can save $100 per month (or more) this way. And look at the annual percentage rate, or APR, to understand the total cost of the loan, which includes fees and other charges.

One final tip about rates: Do your research before picking a mortgage lender with the flashiest discount. This year, some lenders have been advertising “buy now, refinance later” offers. Others are offering temporary buydowns, where the buyer’s effective monthly payment is reduced for a year (or a few). Each option could potentially save money, but Moralez says it could also be “smoke and mirrors” if the deal is offset by higher fees.

“It’s one of those things where I tell folks, ‘There’s no free lunch, OK?’” he says. “You know, somebody is paying for it somewhere.”