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Which Swing States Does Romney Need To Win the 2012 Presidential Election?

Nov. 5, 2012
Personal Finance
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by Susan Lyon

Update:  Will there be a Florida Recount?

Romney’s statistical odds of winning the presidential election tomorrow currently hover at about 20% – these odds aren’t great but they definitely put him within shot of winning.  There are four key combinations of swing states that could give Mitt Romney the win, as laid out in NerdWallet’s Presidential Poker Election Viewing infographic.

The takeaway?  No matter what, Romney would need (at a minimum) to win both Florida AND Ohio, plus at least either Virginia or Colorado, to take the White House.  Here are the most likely combinations of swing states Romney could win, based on all the recent polling in the key states:

1)  Florida + Ohio + Virginia + Colorado = 69 electoral votes, getting him to 275

2)  Florida + Ohio + Virginia + Iowa = 66 electoral votes, getting him to 272

3)  Florida + Ohio + Colorado + Iowa + New Hampshire = 66 electoral votes, getting him to 272

4)  Florida + Ohio + Virginia + New Hampshire = 64 electoral votes, getting him to 270

For a more detailed breakdown of our methodology, please visit NerdWallet’s statistical election prediction model – it will be updated daily through November 6th.  

Susan Lyon is a senior strategy analyst for NerdWallet Investing, a financial literacy website that helps investors select better mutual funds for their 401(k) plans, find brokerage accounts for stock options trading, and make smarter investment decisions overall.