Aug 27 Update: Obama Election Win Odds = 80%
The latest polling data combined with historical accuracy of polls indicates that Republican Mitt Romney has very low chances of beating Barack Obama and winning the 2012 presidential election.
For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.
Who will win the presidency?
Statistical odds of overall election outcome
Last update on: August 27, 2012
Why are Romney’s chances so low?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 19%.
| Current Polling | Probability of | Romney’s Votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
| Colorado | 9 | 45% | 49% | 34% | 3.1 | 0 |
| Florida | 29 | 46% | 48% | 39% | 11.3 | 0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 46% | 44% | 60% | 3.6 | 6 |
| Michigan | 16 | 46% | 46% | 47% | 7.5 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 49% | 44% | 74% | 7.4 | 10 |
| Nevada | 6 | 45% | 47% | 41% | 2.5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 45% | 51% | 24% | 1.0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 48% | 47% | 54% | 8.1 | 15 |
| Ohio | 18 | 45% | 47% | 44% | 7.9 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 41% | 49% | 18% | 3.6 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 47% | 47% | 47% | 6.1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 47% | 48% | 45% | 4.5 | 0 |
| Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
| Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
| *Polling data last updated on August 27, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 248 | 212 | |||
| NEEDED TO WIN: 270 | ||||||
For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.
Analysis was performed by Joanna Pratt. Ms. Pratt is a graduate of Princeton (BA, Economics) and Stanford (MBA) and is a CFA charter holder.
