Election Infographic: Romney’s Odds of Winning at 30% Heading Into the Final Weeks

Personal Finance

by Susan Lyon

As we head into the final weeks of the race, the polling is all over the place.  Some claim Romney is up, others claim he’s down.  How accurate is all this polling shaping up to be?

(See NerdWallet’s official Nerds’ Final Presidential Debate Drinking Game here.)

It seems a lot less clear than just a few months ago who will win the Presidency, but only one number matters: 270 votes NerdWallet’s continually updated statistical election model gives Romney 30% odds of winning, based on the historical accuracy of polling in the key battleground states he’ll need to win to rack up the necessary 270 electoral votes.  The electoral college infographic breaks down why his odds are this slim given neck-in-neck polling in some key states:

Final Presidential Debate Drinking Game 2012

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Final Presidential Debate Drinking Game