Update: Romney’s Election Odds = 16%

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For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.

August 23 Update: Romney’s Odds = 16%

If current election polls are as accurate as historical polls, Mitt Romney has only a 16% chance of winning the presidential election.

Statistical odds of overall election outcome:

Why are Romney’s chances so low?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 16%.
Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 46% 49% 36% 3.2 0
Florida 29 46% 46% 49% 14.2 0
Iowa 6 46% 44% 59% 3.5 6
Michigan 16 45% 47% 39% 6.2 0
Missouri 10 49% 45% 71% 7.1 10
Nevada 6 45% 47% 41% 2.5 0
New Hampshire 4 45% 51% 24% 1.0 0
North Carolina 15 48% 47% 55% 8.3 15
Ohio 18 45% 47% 41% 7.4 0
Pennsylvania 20 41% 48% 20% 4.0 0
Virginia 13 47% 48% 46% 6.0 0
Wisconsin 10 47% 48% 43% 4.3 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on August 23, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 249 212
NEEDED TO WIN:      270