For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.
August 23 Update: Romney’s Odds = 16%
If current election polls are as accurate as historical polls, Mitt Romney has only a 16% chance of winning the presidential election.
Statistical odds of overall election outcome:
Why are Romney’s chances so low?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 16%.
Current Polling | Probability of | Romney’s Votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
Colorado | 9 | 46% | 49% | 36% | 3.2 | 0 |
Florida | 29 | 46% | 46% | 49% | 14.2 | 0 |
Iowa | 6 | 46% | 44% | 59% | 3.5 | 6 |
Michigan | 16 | 45% | 47% | 39% | 6.2 | 0 |
Missouri | 10 | 49% | 45% | 71% | 7.1 | 10 |
Nevada | 6 | 45% | 47% | 41% | 2.5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 4 | 45% | 51% | 24% | 1.0 | 0 |
North Carolina | 15 | 48% | 47% | 55% | 8.3 | 15 |
Ohio | 18 | 45% | 47% | 41% | 7.4 | 0 |
Pennsylvania | 20 | 41% | 48% | 20% | 4.0 | 0 |
Virginia | 13 | 47% | 48% | 46% | 6.0 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 10 | 47% | 48% | 43% | 4.3 | 0 |
Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
*Polling data last updated on August 23, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 249 | 212 | |||
NEEDED TO WIN: 270 |