In the wake of a winning debate performance, the presidential election polling continues to shift in Romney’s direction with his odds of election topping 25% for the first time in months. Will the momentum continue and sweep Romney to victory? Check back with the NerdWallet presidential election odds model, updated daily!
Why are Romney’s chances only 27%?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 27%.
| Current Polling | Probability of | Romney’s Votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
| Colorado | 9 | 48% | 47% | 56% | 5.0 | 9 |
| Florida | 29 | 48% | 47% | 59% | 17.1 | 29 |
| Iowa | 6 | 47% | 49% | 39% | 2.3 | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 44% | 49% | 28% | 4.5 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 50% | 46% | 71% | 7.1 | 10 |
| Nevada | 6 | 47% | 48% | 42% | 2.5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 1.8 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 49% | 46% | 64% | 9.6 | 15 |
| Ohio | 18 | 46% | 48% | 41% | 7.4 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 43% | 48% | 28% | 5.6 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 48% | 48% | 47% | 6.1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 48% | 50% | 38% | 3.8 | 0 |
| Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
| Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
| *Polling data last updated on October 12, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 254 | 244 | |||
| NEEDED TO WIN: 270 | ||||||
