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WHAT IF: Romney’s election odds if certain states are won or lost

October 24, 2012
Personal Finance
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It’s starting to look like the only path to a Romney victory is through Ohio, but is it really over for the Republicans if they fail to carry that state?  On the Democratic side, how much would winning Florida boost Obama’s chances?

Below are the candidates’ statistical odds of winning the election under “what if” scenarios.

What if Romney wins every state where he is currently polling ahead (including Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Virginia)?

  • Romney’s odds: 73.6%
  • Obama’s odds: 24.6%
  • Tie: 1.8%

What if Obama wins Florida?

  • Romney’s odds: 5.3%
  • Obama’s odds: 94.2%
  • Tie: 0.5%

What if Romney wins Florida?

  • Romney’s odds: 44.5%
  • Obama’s odds: 54.2%
  • Tie: 1.3%

What if Obama wins Ohio?

  • Romney’s odds: 16.6%
  • Obama’s odds: 82.6%
  • Tie: 0.8%

What if Romney wins Ohio?

  • Romney’s odds: 46.3%
  • Obama’s odds: 52.4%
  • Tie: 1.2%

What if Obama wins Ohio & Florida?

  • Romney’s odds: 1.1%
  • Obama’s odds: 98.8%
  • Tie: 0.1%

What if Romney wins Ohio & Florida?

  •  Romney’s odds: 69.5%
  • Obama’s odds: 29.0%
  • Tie: 1.5%
Check out our other articles to learn more about election math or to track the candidate’s overall odds as we update our analysis everyday with the latest polls.