The statistical odds of Mitt Romney winning the presidential election fell from 17% to 15% with the release of new polling by Fox News. The polls show Romney trailing President Obama in the battleground states of Ohio (49% to 42%), Virginia (50% to 43%), and Florida (49% to 44%).
The new Fox News polls were combined with all other polls of 500 or more likely voters in the previous two weeks to determine the “current polling” input for the NerdWallet election model. The model analyzes “current polling” using historical accuracy of such polling to calculate the statistical odds of the election outcome. Although Romney is virtually tied with Obama for the national popular vote, the electoral college map favors Obama. In fact, this could potentially be another election (the fifth in history) where the winner of the popular vote does not win the presidency.
Check back for daily updates as more polls roll in!
Who will win the presidency?
Statistical odds of overall election outcome
Why are Romney’s chances so low?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 15%.
| Current Polling | Probability of | Romney’s Votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
| Colorado | 9 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 4.1 | 0 |
| Florida | 29 | 46% | 48% | 43% | 12.5 | 0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 45% | 47% | 44% | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 41% | 49% | 26% | 4.2 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 48% | 45% | 60% | 6.0 | 10 |
| Nevada | 6 | 47% | 50% | 40% | 2.4 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 45% | 46% | 46% | 1.8 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 50% | 47% | 58% | 8.7 | 15 |
| Ohio | 18 | 44% | 49% | 35% | 6.3 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 41% | 49% | 24% | 4.8 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 46% | 49% | 39% | 5.1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 47% | 49% | 42% | 4.2 | 0 |
| Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
| Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
| *Polling data last updated on September 20, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 244 | 206 | |||
| NEEDED TO WIN: 270 | ||||||
