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Romney’s Odds fall to 15% on Fox News Polling

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The statistical odds of Mitt Romney winning the presidential election fell from 17% to 15% with the release of new polling by Fox News.  The polls show Romney trailing President Obama in the battleground states of Ohio (49% to 42%), Virginia (50% to 43%), and Florida (49% to 44%).

The new Fox News polls were combined with all other polls of 500 or more likely voters in the previous two weeks to determine the “current polling” input for the NerdWallet election model.  The model analyzes “current polling” using historical accuracy of such polling to calculate the statistical odds of the election outcome.  Although Romney is virtually tied with Obama for the national popular vote, the electoral college map favors Obama.  In fact, this could potentially be another election (the fifth in history) where the winner of the popular vote does not win the presidency.

Check back for daily updates as more polls roll in!

Who will win the presidency?

Statistical odds of overall election outcome

Last update on: September 20, 2012

Why are Romney’s chances so low?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 15%.
Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 46% 47% 46% 4.1 0
Florida 29 46% 48% 43% 12.5 0
Iowa 6 45% 47% 44% 2.6 0
Michigan 16 41% 49% 26% 4.2 0
Missouri 10 48% 45% 60% 6.0 10
Nevada 6 47% 50% 40% 2.4 0
New Hampshire 4 45% 46% 46% 1.8 0
North Carolina 15 50% 47% 58% 8.7 15
Ohio 18 44% 49% 35% 6.3 0
Pennsylvania 20 41% 49% 24% 4.8 0
Virginia 13 46% 49% 39% 5.1 0
Wisconsin 10 47% 49% 42% 4.2 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on September 20, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 244 206
NEEDED TO WIN:      270