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Romney’s odds surge to 23% after first debate

Personal Finance

The post-debate polls continue to roll in and Romney’s odds of winning the election continue to rise.  In the days before the debate, Romney’s polling numbers combined with historical accuracy of polling indicated his odds of winning were only 7%, but now those odds have risen to 23%.

Pennsylvania: Obama’s lead narrowed from 12 points to only 2 to 3 points.

Pre-debate: Obama 54 to Romney 42 (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Post-debate: Obama 47 to Romney 45 (Susquehanna) & Obama 43 to Romney 40 (Sienna)

Virginia:  Obama’s lead narrowed from 2 points to a virtual tie.

Pre-debate: Obama 48 to Romney 46 (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Post-debate:

Obama 45 to Romney 48 (We Ask America)

Obama 48 to Romney 49 (Rasmussen Reports

Obama 50 to Romney 47 (PPP)

 

Florida: Obama’s 1 point lead reverses to a Romney 2-3 point lead.

Pre-debate: Obama 47 to Romney 46 (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Post-debate:

Obama 46 to Romney 49 (We Ask America)

Obama 47 to Romney 49 (Rasmussen Reports

Why are Romney’s chances only 23%?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 23%.
Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 48% 47% 52% 4.7 9
Florida 29 47% 47% 51% 14.8 29
Iowa 6 45% 49% 35% 2.1 0
Michigan 16 44% 50% 28% 4.5 0
Missouri 10 49% 45% 65% 6.5 10
Nevada 6 46% 50% 35% 2.1 0
New Hampshire 4 45% 50% 32% 1.3 0
North Carolina 15 49% 46% 61% 9.2 15
Ohio 18 46% 49% 42% 7.6 0
Pennsylvania 20 43% 45% 40% 8.0 0
Virginia 13 47% 48% 47% 6.1 0
Wisconsin 10 45% 51% 27% 2.7 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on October 9, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 251 244
NEEDED TO WIN:      270