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Update: Obama’s Election Odds Increase to 87%

Personal Finance

The latest post-convention polls are in and its not looking good for Mitt Romney and the Republican Ticket.  New polling suggests Obama has taken a commanding lead in key battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.  Obama also leads in the critical states of Ohio and Florida, which command 18 and 29 electoral votes, respectively.  It all adds up to an uphill battle for Romney.  The NerdWallet Election Model puts the odds of Romney winning the election at only 12%.

Nevertheless, there are still three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate that could shake up the campaigns.  The first will be held on Wednesday, October 3 at 9pm Eastern.  Check out the full 2012 Presidential Debate Schedule with times, locations, and more!

Why are Romney’s chances so low?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 12%.

 

Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 46% 48% 41% 3.7 0
Florida 29 47% 48% 44% 12.8 0
Iowa 6 45% 47% 42% 2.5 0
Michigan 16 41% 50% 23% 3.7 0
Missouri 10 48% 45% 60% 6.0 10
Nevada 6 46% 48% 41% 2.5 0
New Hampshire 4 48% 47% 54% 2.2 4
North Carolina 15 47% 47% 49% 7.4 0
Ohio 18 45% 49% 36% 6.5 0
Pennsylvania 20 41% 51% 23% 4.6 0
Virginia 13 46% 49% 39% 5.1 0
Wisconsin 10 44% 52% 24% 2.4 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on September 24, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 240 195
NEEDED TO WIN:      270