Advertiser Disclosure

Update: Romney’s Election Odds = 20%

Aug. 29, 2012
Personal Finance
NerdWallet adheres to strict standards of editorial integrity to help you make decisions with confidence. Some of the products we feature are from partners. Here’s how we make money.
We adhere to strict standards of editorial integrity. Some of the products we feature are from our partners. Here’s how we make money.

The latest polling data combined with historical accuracy of polls indicates that Republican Mitt Romney has very low chances of beating Barack Obama and winning the 2012 presidential election.

For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.


Why are Romney’s chances so low?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 20%.
Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 45% 49% 39% 3.5 0
Florida 29 46% 47% 44% 12.8 0
Iowa 6 45% 47% 44% 2.6 0
Michigan 16 46% 46% 48% 7.7 0
Missouri 10 49% 44% 66% 6.6 10
Nevada 6 45% 47% 44% 2.6 0
New Hampshire 4 45% 51% 32% 1.3 0
North Carolina 15 46% 45% 51% 7.7 15
Ohio 18 45% 48% 40% 7.2 0
Pennsylvania 20 41% 50% 24% 4.8 0
Virginia 13 46% 49% 43% 5.6 0
Wisconsin 10 47% 48% 48% 4.8 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on August 28, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 248 206
NEEDED TO WIN:      270