The latest polling data combined with historical accuracy of polls indicates that Republican Mitt Romney’s chances of beating Barack Obama and winning the 2012 presidential election have improved from 18% before the Republican National Convention to 23% after. Stay tuned to see how the Democratic National Convention, currently underway, affect the election odds.
For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.
Who will win the presidency?
Statistical odds of overall election outcome
Last update on: September 5, 2012
Why are Romney’s chances so low?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 23%.
| Current Polling | Probability of | Romney’s Votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
| Colorado | 9 | 46% | 49% | 41% | 3.7 | 0 |
| Florida | 29 | 47% | 48% | 46% | 13.3 | 0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 45% | 47% | 43% | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 45% | 49% | 37% | 5.9 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 50% | 44% | 69% | 6.9 | 10 |
| Nevada | 6 | 47% | 50% | 40% | 2.4 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 45% | 51% | 32% | 1.3 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 47% | 45% | 56% | 8.4 | 15 |
| Ohio | 18 | 46% | 45% | 55% | 9.9 | 18 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 42% | 51% | 24% | 4.8 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 47% | 47% | 50% | 6.5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 47% | 49% | 43% | 4.3 | 0 |
| Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
| Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
| *Polling data last updated on September 5, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 251 | 224 | |||
| NEEDED TO WIN: 270 | ||||||
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