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Update: Romney’s Post-RNC Election Odds improve to 23%

Sept. 5, 2012
Personal Finance
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The latest polling data combined with historical accuracy of polls indicates that Republican Mitt Romney’s chances of beating Barack Obama and winning the 2012 presidential election have improved from 18% before the Republican National Convention to 23% after.  Stay tuned to see how the Democratic National Convention, currently underway, affect the election odds.

For the most current election analysis, see the NerdWallet Statistical Election Tracker.

Who will win the presidency?

Statistical odds of overall election outcome

Last update on: September 5, 2012

Why are Romney’s chances so low?

  1. Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
  2. Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
  3. Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney’s statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 23%.
Current Polling Probability of Romney’s Votes
State Electoral Votes Romney Obama Romney Winning Expectation Binary
Colorado 9 46% 49% 41% 3.7 0
Florida 29 47% 48% 46% 13.3 0
Iowa 6 45% 47% 43% 2.6 0
Michigan 16 45% 49% 37% 5.9 0
Missouri 10 50% 44% 69% 6.9 10
Nevada 6 47% 50% 40% 2.4 0
New Hampshire 4 45% 51% 32% 1.3 0
North Carolina 15 47% 45% 56% 8.4 15
Ohio 18 46% 45% 55% 9.9 18
Pennsylvania 20 42% 51% 24% 4.8 0
Virginia 13 47% 47% 50% 6.5 0
Wisconsin 10 47% 49% 43% 4.3 0
Safe Romney 181 100% 181 181
Safe Obama 201 0% 0 0
*Polling data last updated on September 5, 2012 TOTAL ROMNEY 251 224
NEEDED TO WIN:      270
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