{"id":82485,"date":"2025-09-17T06:45:41","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T13:45:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nerdwallet.com\/ca\/?page_id=82485"},"modified":"2025-09-17T06:45:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T13:45:47","slug":"bank-of-canada-september-2025-rate-cut-will-it-matter","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.nerdwallet.com\/ca\/mortgages\/bank-of-canada-september-2025-rate-cut-will-it-matter","title":{"rendered":"The Bank of Canada Just Gifted Home Buyers Lower Rates: Will It Matter?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Bank of Canada\u2019s reduction of the overnight rate to 2.5%, its third cut this year, is a gift to home buyers. But the timing\u2019s a little awkward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BoC essentially gave trapeze lessons to someone who\u2019s recovering from vertigo:\u00a0It\u2019s a fun gift, but should they actually use it? That\u2019s the question home buyers will be mulling in the coming weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Variable mortgage rates<\/a> will soon be around 3.7% at some brokerages, their lowest level in three years. But the reason we\u2019ll have better rates tomorrow is because the economy\u2019s suffering today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s gross domestic product \u2014 a key indicator of economic health \u2014 is in decline, while unemployment is on the rise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It suddenly feels a lot like January, when tariff uncertainty<\/a> was rampant and buying a home felt exceedingly risky. It took months before buyers shook off the threat of tariffs and started slowly returning to the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For that to happen this time, it\u2019s not just mortgage rates that need to improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

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Find the Best 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates<\/span>
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Browse Current Mortgage Rates<\/span>
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Compare Variable Mortgage Rates<\/span>
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Job market jitters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s unemployment rate was 7.1% in August, according to Statistics Canada.\u00a0Outside the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, that\u2019s the highest unemployment rate the country\u2019s seen since May of 2016.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theoretically, rate cuts should help bolster the job market. That just hasn\u2019t been the case as of late. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Canada dropped the overnight rate in January and March, and the unemployment rate has yet to improve. (It was 6.7% when the Bank last cut in March.) Looking back even further, unemployment was 6.4% when the Bank started lowering the overnight rate in June 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unease around employment is often a major obstacle for home buyers, says Marshall Tully, a Toronto-based mortgage broker with Invis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLower rates are welcome, but uncertainty about employment or the broader economic outlook weighs more heavily on decision-making,\u201d Tully says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA rate cut that brings variable rates back to 3.65% would improve affordability, but for most buyers it\u2019s not enough to overcome concerns about job stability or a softening economy. Until buyers feel confident in their personal financial outlook, rate cuts alone won\u2019t trigger a surge in activity or values.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a sense among economists that unemployment could rise even higher. If this feeling spreads to home buyers, it could be as effective at cooling the market as job losses themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Gross” is right<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s gross domestic product shrank by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, a larger decline than analysts, including the Bank of Canada, had expected. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association, housing demand<\/a> generally isn\u2019t impacted by GDP unless a major financial shock is derailing the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat said, a strong economy that is producing robust job and income growth is good for the housing market,\u201d Ogmundson said by email. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That doesn\u2019t seem to be the economy we\u2019re living in, though. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, Oxford Economics economist Michael Davenport projected that the Canadian economy will \u201cteeter on the verge of recession\u201d in the second half of 2025, dragged down by the uncertainty caused by the trade war with the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the knowledge of weak GDP growth doesn\u2019t drive down home sales, talk of recession<\/a> might. The belief that the economy is about to contract can be paralyzing for a home buyer who believes their income is in jeopardy, or for an investor worried about unpaid rents.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a recession does materialize, Ogmundson believes it could be short, shallow and confined to the trade sector. But that\u2019s not a given.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe’ll see what the third quarter brings,\u201d he said. \u201cHard to see consumption holding up in the face of a weakening job market.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other numbers matter, too<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Recent economic data is ugly, but buying a home ultimately depends on the strength of your finances, not the health of the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If your job and finances are stable, it\u2019s not a bad time to be sniffing out a mortgage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, annual home prices fell and inventory counts rose in several major housing markets: Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Variable rates will decrease within hours of the rate cut, and sinking government bond yields indicate that lower fixed rates could be on the way, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That all adds up to opportunity for buyers with their finances in order. The broader housing market might struggle under the weight of a lagging economy, but that doesn\u2019t rule out the possibility of individual success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\tAbout the Author\t\t<\/h4>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tClay Jarvis<\/strong>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Clay Jarvis is NerdWallet\u2019s mortgage and real estate expert in Canada. Thus far, his entire professional writing career has revolved around real estate. Prior to joining NerdWallet, he was the…<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRead more about Clay Jarvis and explore their articles<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\t

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\n\t\t\t\tDIVE EVEN DEEPER\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\n\t\t
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\n\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\"How\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n

\n\t\n\t\tHow Bad Was the Canadian Housing Market In the First Half of 2025?\t<\/a>\n<\/h4>\n\n\t
\n\t\t

Six months of Trump and the market’s still standing, but there are uncharted waters ahead.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\"\"Clay Jarvis<\/a>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
\n
\n\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\"Calculator:\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n

\n\t\n\t\tCalculator: How Much Mortgage Can You Afford?\t<\/a>\n<\/h4>\n\n\t
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Use our mortgage affordability calculator to see how your interest rate, down payment and debt ratios affect your housing budget.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\"Don’t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t
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\n\t\n\t\tDon’t Settle at Renewal: How to Make Mortgage Lenders Fight for You\t<\/a>\n<\/h4>\n\n\t
\n\t\t

Can you contact banks directly while working with a mortgage broker? Yes, but for best results you’ll want to coordinate those conversations.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\"\"Deborah Kearns<\/a>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\"Can\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n

\n\t\n\t\tCan the New Cap on NSF Fees Help You Get Back on Track?\t<\/a>\n<\/h4>\n\n\t
\n\t\t

NSF fees will be capped starting in March 2026. See how it might benefit your finances and what you can do now to prepare.<\/p>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\"\"Helen Burnett-Nichols<\/a>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/section>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Improved affordability is about to be tested by a deteriorating economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":82487,"parent":106,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/article-sidebar.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-09-17T13:45:45Z","apple_news_api_id":"4f58ba5c-d445-45c2-86e2-f6338cc0258c","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-09-17T13:45:45Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AT1i6XNRFRcKG4vYzjMAljA","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":"[]","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":"","_nw_pros_cons_block_schema":""},"content-classification":[16],"topic":[121],"cluster":[246],"pp_author":[87],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nBank of Canada Rate Cut: A Gift to Buyers; Will It Matter? - NerdWallet Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bank\u2019s September 17th rate cut gives home buyers sub-4% mortgage rates. 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