Romney's election odds: 21%
Who will win the presidency?Statistical odds of overall election outcome
Why are Romney's chances so low?
- Obama has 201 safe electoral votes. Romney has only 181. Only 12 states (156 electoral votes) could go to either candidate.
- Therefore, Romney needs at least 89 of those 156 electoral votes to win (57%).
- Given current polling in those states & historical polling accuracy, Romney's statistical chance of getting those 89 votes is only 21%.
States in Play
Romney needs 89 of 156 electoral votes up for grabs (57%). Statistical odds of winning each state:
How accurately do polls predict presidential election results?
* Actual results differ from polling results by less than this amount 95% of the time.
Past Polling AccuracyIn the past two elections, over 95% of state polls accurately predicted outcomes within 7%.
Accuracy over TimeAs polling gets closer to the election date, accuracy increases. Ninety-five percent of polls taken just before the election were accurate within 5.5%.
Applying Historical Polling Accuracy to the Current Election
|Current Polling||Probability of||Romney's Votes|
|State||Electoral Votes||Romney||Obama||Romney Winning||Expectation||Binary|
|*Polling data last updated on November 6, 2012 at 9:42 AM PST||TOTAL ROMNEY||250||235|
|NEEDED TO WIN: 270|
How should these results be interpreted?If current polls are as accurate as historical polls, Mitt Romney has a 21% chance of winning the presidential election.
How did we calculate these numbers?
- Current Polling: All state presidential election polls of 500 or more likely voters in the two weeks prior to the date of this report.
- "Safe" States: States where one candidate has such a large polling advantage that losing the state is statistically nearly impossible.
- Polling Accuracy: Based on polling accuracy of over 1500 polls taken during the previous two presidential elections. Polling accuracy increases as we get closer to the election.
- Methodology: We combine the current polling results with the corresponding polling accuracy and run 30,000 simulations. The percentage of simulations won by each candidate is reported as their probability of election.
What are the limitations of this analysis? Could the results be incorrect?
- These numbers are based on two things: historical polling accuracy & current polling data. The accuracy of this analysis depends on the accuracy of these two inputs.
- If polling accuracy changes substantially from the previous two elections, these numbers could be wrong.
- If there is fraud or other biased error in the current polls, these numbers could be wrong.
Could Mitt Romney still win the election?
- These numbers could be incorrect if current polls are far less accurate than they have been historically. Dramatic events or substantial new information between now and the election could cause this to be the case.
- These numbers could be correct and Mitt Romney could beat the odds since his current chances are low, but not impossible.