Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Holden LewisJul 23, 2021
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Mortgage rates today: Friday, July 23, 2021

On Friday, July 23, 2021, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell three basis points to 2.846% APR. The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped three basis points to 2.236% APR and the average rate on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose four basis points to 3.143% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is three basis points higher than one week ago and 32 basis points lower than one year ago. A basis point is one one-hundredth of one percent. Rates are expressed as annual percentage rate, or APR.

NerdWallet's coronavirus resources page tracks the latest developments, including information on loan and payment relief, ways to cope and how to best manage your personal finances.

If you can't make your full mortgage payment, or you're worried that you won't be able to make the payments soon, contact your mortgage servicer immediately. You may be eligible for mortgage forbearance, temporary relief in which the lender allows you to make lower monthly payments, or no payments at all, for a specified time. NerdWallet's article about mortgage forbearance explains the basics.

A forbearance may prevent you from getting another mortgage for at least three months. Lenders are unlikely to approve you for a mortgage until you have made three on-time payments following the forbearance. During that period, you probably won't be able to get a mortgage to buy a home or to refinance.

See what types of mortgage relief programs are available to homeowners who are worried about making their house payments due to the coronavirus outbreak.

To get help, you will need to contact the mortgage servicer that collects payments. See an alphabetical list of mortgage servicers with contact information.

Here are general guidelines for what to do if you can't pay your mortgage.

Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage rates held fairly steady for the week ending July 22.

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.85% APR, the same as the previous week's average.

  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.25% APR, down one basis point from the previous week's average.

  • The five-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.08% APR, up one basis point from the previous week's average.

Existing home sales rose 1.4% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors. Even a slight uptick in the supply of available homes is a welcome sight for hopeful home buyers, but with just a 2.6-month supply of unsold homes (up from 2.5 months in May), the housing market still tilts in sellers’ favor.

The median price for existing homes continues to rise, hitting a record $363,300 in June. That's $13,000 higher than the record set last month, and almost $70,000 higher than the median home price one year ago.

Despite low rates, the current lack of inventory, high prices and an influx of buyers making cash offers have created a triple bind for home buyers of more modest means. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, points out that these forces are making the market especially daunting for first-time home buyers.

Though Yun anticipates home prices staying high, he notes that increased inventory should temper appreciation. The prospect of getting top dollar for their homes may prompt more sellers to enter the market, but given the dearth of homes for sale, buyers won’t be making offers in a less competitive market for some time.

» MORE: Advice for navigating a hot real estate market

July mortgage rates forecast

I think mortgage rates will stay about the same in July. The month's average on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be between 2.8% and 3% annual percentage rate. That's within one-tenth of a percentage point on either side of June's average of 2.9%. I think they're more likely to go up within that range than down.

Mortgage rates seemed insulated from splashy economic reports in June, and that shruggy attitude may continue in July.

What happened in June

At the beginning of June, I predicted that mortgage rates would rise slightly. But the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell. The monthly average dipped from 2.94% in May to 2.9% in June.

June was marked by a disappointing employment report, news of rising inflation and word from the Federal Reserve that it may start raising short-term rates in 2023. None of those news items affected mortgage rates much. I had expected the Fed announcement to push mortgage rates higher than it did.

Regulators refresh foreclosure protections

Foreclosure moratoriums have been extended through July 31 for mortgages backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs. After the moratoriums end, mortgage servicers will have to make good-faith efforts to avoid foreclosing on owner-occupants who are behind on mortgage payments.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau described those necessary good-faith efforts in a rule published in late June. Among the guidelines:

  • Mortgage servicers must inform delinquent borrowers about forbearance programs if they haven't already enrolled in one.

  • Servicers must give delinquent borrowers information about homeownership counseling.

  • The CFPB will allow mortgage servicers to offer COVID-19-related loan modifications based on incomplete applications.

That last rule could prevent some foreclosures, because delinquent borrowers don't always respond to follow-up requests for more information after asking for mortgage relief.

We didn't have a housing crash this time

These rules, along with moratoriums on foreclosures and evictions, stand as evidence that regulators learned important lessons after the housing crash that began in 2007 and 2008. There were policy debates back then over whether delinquent homeowners should be saved from foreclosure with mortgage modifications.

Many argued that it would be preferable to let millions of homeowners lose their houses than to offer financial help so they could keep them. The thinking went that if homeowners were bailed out, they wouldn't learn any lessons and would take unnecessary risks in the future. It's kind of like refusing to help victims of a boating accident because they weren’t wearing life jackets when they fell into the water.

Aid to distressed homeowners arrived in 2009 with the Home Affordable Modification Program, but the initiative was too late for many homeowners. An avalanche of foreclosures sent home prices tumbling. Home sales plunged as would-be buyers waited for prices to fall even further.

A dozen years ago, today's pandemic-era protections might have been considered excessive coddling of homeowners. But the initiatives seem to be working, keeping people in their homes.

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