Canadian Housing Market Update: August 2025

After four consecutive months of increasing home sales, we might finally be able to say the Canadian housing market has turned a corner.

July sales were 3.8% higher than June, and the highest monthly total of the year, at 42,749 homes sold.

[1]

It’s unusual for July to be the market’s hottest month, so the recent uptick in activity could be a sign that we’re heading toward a robust fall.

For that to happen, we’ll need to see some stability in other parts of the economy: in unemployment, mortgage rates and especially our tenuous trade relationship with the U.S.

Changing attitudes toward the trade war seem to be driving the market turnaround, with home buyers feeling more confident that tariffs haven’t gutted the economy. We’ll see if Trump’s 35% tariffs, which kicked in on August 1, are enough to dampen that rising enthusiasm.

For now, though, the market has a spring in its step and is finally seeing gains where it needs them the most.

Ontario — back on track?

When NerdWallet analyzed the Canadian market’s performance in the first half of 2025, we found that national home sales were held back mainly by Ontario, which saw nearly 12,000 fewer transactions compared to the same period in 2024. Sales in B.C. and Alberta fell off by 2,493 and 2,931, respectively, over the same period.

July wasn’t a banner month for Ontario historically speaking, but it was the first time since March that more than 15,000 homes changed hands. Sales increased 7.6% compared to June — the biggest jump for any province — and were up 11.1% year-over-year.

[2]

Even more encouraging is that the growth was seen across the province. Sales increased by 19% or more year-over-year in Thunder Bay, Hamilton, London and the Niagara Region, while sales in Greater Toronto rose by 13.2%.

As one of Canada’s most expensive markets, and the provincial economy most exposed to tariff risks, a rise in sales for Ontario should be taken as a sign that the housing market’s most important component — home buyer demand — persists.

Regional winners and losers in July

While most of the significant gains were found in Ontario, a few other cities saw healthy sales increases from June to July, including:

Some markets, however, moved in the opposite direction:

The market to keep an eye on there is Montreal, which has so far had a strong 2025. This modest monthly decrease in sales could just be a blip. But after running so hot for most of the year, it’s possible that rising prices and decreasing inventory might mean Montreal’s about to hit a wall.

Canadian housing prices

Home prices were largely stable in July. The Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS Home Price Index was unchanged from June, while the national average home price increased just 0.6% — to $672,784 — versus July 2024.

Here’s how the average sale price behaved in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets. All percentages indicate year-over-year changes.

Going forward, softening prices in Toronto and Vancouver should continue benefiting buyers.

Prices in other cities, where sales have been steady for much of the year, will probably edge up further. They may do so at an even faster pace if more buyers decide to ignore the tariff-shaped cloud hanging over the economy and get into the market during a welcomed period of stability.