Canadian Housing Market Update: November 2025

The Canadian real estate market was somewhere between spinning its wheels and gaining traction in October 2025.

Compared to September, home sales were up by 0.9%, or about 350 transactions. That’s not a terribly exciting increase considering that variable mortgage rates sank to a three-year low after the Bank of Canada’s September rate cut.

But home sales increased in seven provinces — no small feat considering the economic uncertainty consumers are grappling with.

Year-to-date, home sales in Canada are down just 0.9% versus the first 10 months of 2024. Only three provinces have been responsible for the annual decrease — Ontario, B.C. and Alberta — and two of them, B.C. and Alberta, saw sales edge up this October.

Regardless of how you view the housing market’s recent performance, there’s enough working in buyers’ favour to gin up a little optimism around its immediate future.

If the BoC’s September rate reduction helped grease the wheels for buyers last month, it’s fair to assume that the Bank’s late-October rate cut will work similar magic in November. Variable mortgage rates are as low as 3.45% at some brokerages and direct lenders, making them the cheapest option. And with 189,000 properties sitting on the market at the end of October, buyers should have plenty of bargaining power.

When you take all these factors together, it's actually not a bad time to be exploring the market. (Though that might be hard to believe if you're on a steady diet of negative economic headlines.) If the economy doesn’t flatline and the country’s trade war with the U.S. doesn’t devolve into some new crisis, we should see more buyers take the plunge.

Once that happens, the water could get frothy. If you hope to buy a home in the next four months, consider talking to a mortgage broker, getting pre-approved and finding out what’s possible.

Housing market winners and losers in October

On a monthly basis, home sales were down in only three provinces. And a confounding mix of provinces they are.

Sales dipped by 4.3% in Saskatchewan and by 5% in Manitoba, two of Canada’s most affordable provincial markets, while they were almost flat (-0.7%) in the country’s priciest market, Ontario. What could this mean?

This is likely the result of two separate trends playing out. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, we could be witnessing market exhaustion. Both provinces have had solid years (Saskatchewan’s been on a two-year heater) and both prices and inventory levels may be reaching a point that restricts sales. This is not a bad thing; just a natural ebb.

In Ontario, conditions might finally be improving to the point where buyers are ready to brave the market. Inventory’s up, current mortgage rates are inviting and U.S. tariffs haven't yet blown a hole in the provincial economy. An uptick in buyer confidence should get Ontario’s sales levels back in positive territory.

Sales increases in October were broad, and in some cases significant (monthly gains are in parenthesis):

Even though sales rose most notably in smaller, more affordable provincial markets, sellers in B.C. and Alberta should feel encouraged. If buyers in those provinces sense less risk and better buying conditions, those monthly sales increases should keep growing.

Canadian home prices in October

Here’s how prices behaved in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets last month. All percentages indicate year-over-year changes in the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s preferred home price metric.