Canadian Housing Market Update: April 2026

Canadian home sales were virtually unchanged in March. What that means depends on your perspective.

An optimist could look at the 0.1% decrease from February and see stability. February, after all, didn’t involve a war in the Middle East that drove up mortgage rates. Sales holding steady while borrowing costs and anxiety over the war’s impact on the global economy both spiked could be charitably interpreted as a win.

A more pragmatic view might be that a decrease is still a decrease, and that the market’s losing streak held for another month. Year-to-date, home sales are down 7.9% overall, with five provinces posting double-digit declines versus the first quarter of 2025.

The ongoing slowdown has led the Canadian Real Estate Association to downgrade its sale and home price forecasts. Home sales in 2026 are now expected to post a 1% year-over-year increase, while the national average sale price is projected to rise by only 1.5% — less than the current rate of inflation.

A telling detail in CREA’s price estimate is that four of the five provinces expected to see the most significant price increases — Saskatchewan, Manitoba, PEI and Newfoundland — are also forecasted to see sales either decrease or plateau. Higher prices, if they materialize at all in these areas, will likely be the product of limited supply rather than rising demand.

It’s safe to assume that demand exists, but that’s not the same as confidence, which the current economic climate appears to be siphoning from prospective home buyers.

For those who can qualify at today’s mortgage rates — variables around 3.4% are not a bad deal — there’s still the matter of affording everything besides a mortgage payment.

The war in Iran has driven up gas and shipping costs, and could still lead to a spike in inflation even if it’s resolved immediately. Trade tensions with the U.S., though pushed to the back of most Canadians’ minds this year, could flare up at any moment and threaten the country’s already dispiriting job market.

Can anything save the spring housing market?

An optimist would say yes. Canadians just need to ignore the bad vibes, believe that this is as bad as the economy will get and snap up cheap variable rates while they last.

A pragmatist would say no. Bad vibes are one thing; persistent cost of living challenges are another. Until Canadians feel more financially secure, they’re not sinking their life savings into a mortgage.

Housing market winners and losers in March

On a monthly basis, home sales increased in just four provinces:

The sales increase in Ontario is the most exciting data point here. While it only represents about 200 more transactions compared to February, any improvement at this point will be welcome news for sellers in the province. Year-over-year, sales in Ontario were down only 0.2% in March.

Quebec eking out an increase of less than 40 sales is worth noting, too. If this is a sign of market exhaustion, one of Canada’s most resilient markets over the past two years might be joining B.C. and Alberta as a drag on national sales.

Speaking of Canada’s westernmost provinces, they’re both making an appearance on the loser list once again. In March, sales decreased in:

It’s encouraging to see B.C. at the bottom of this list rather than the top. Considering the state of the economy, the province’s high home prices and its cratering condo market, a monthly decline of just 22 sales feels almost hopeful.

It’s hard to be optimistic about the PEI market’s trajectory this year. The province had a blistering 2025, which boosted prices and eroded inventory. If 2025 was the party, 2026 could be the hangover.

Canadian home prices in March

Here’s how prices behaved in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets last month.

All percentages indicate year-over-year changes in the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s preferred home price metric.

Prices softened in most markets in March. Of the 55 cities CREA provides benchmark price information for, 32 experienced a month-over-month decline. In the communities where prices rose, they generally did so by less than a percent.

Canada’s overall benchmark price for March, $659,100, was down 0.4% from February and 4.6% year-over-year.