Canadian Housing Market Update — July 2026: The Spring Market Sputters

A month ago, we wrote about how an active May for home sales in Canada had ushered in the spring selling season. That may have been a mirage.

In June 2026, sales edged up nationally, but only by 0.5% versus May. That’s a gain of about 200 transactions. Year-over-year, sales improved by less than 1%, and that’s compared to a subdued June 2025.

While sales have risen for three months in a row. June’s minor increase feels more like a step backward than forward momentum. In June, sales rose in five provinces — three fewer than in May.

It’s hard to account for June’s relative flatness.

Fixed mortgage rates crept up somewhat early in the month due to the war in Iran’s impact on government bond yields, but steady variable rates have provided a cheaper alternative since last October. Economic indicators such as GDP and employment strengthened, but neither led to a widespread boost in sentiment.

It might be that May was the outlier, when all the pent-up demand from a crummy winter was unleashed. June might better reflect the primary challenges so many homeowners are bumping up against: the increasing cost of living and stubbornly high home prices.

Housing market winners and losers in June

The provinces that experienced monthly sales gains in June included:

That list includes two major surprises: Newfoundland and Saskatchewan, where sales have struggled to match the heights each province hit in 2025. Supply is limited and prices are at record highs, so June’s significant monthly gains are a testament to buyer tenacity. They may also indicate a desperate push by buyers to lock in a home before prices go any higher.

Though the gains in Ontario were modest, they’re worth calling out, too. The province’s housing market seems to be turning a corner, as sales rose on both a monthly and annual basis in major markets like Hamilton, Niagara, Windsor and Toronto. Expect prices to start firming up across the province.

June’s loser list included:

Most of this list is composed of markets bumping up against their respective ceilings. Quebec’s hot streak is showing signs of fizzling, while wages in Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia may no longer keep pace with each province’s elevated home prices.

Even though B.C. finds itself on the loser list, there are reasons for hope, including higher monthly sales in hideously expensive markets like Vancouver and Victoria. June was the first month since September 2025 in which B.C. saw a year-over-year improvement in sales.

With a brutally hot summer in effect, it’d be surprising to see sales improve much, if at all, in July. The loser list might be a little longer a month from now.

Canadian home prices in June

Here’s how prices behaved in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets last month.

All percentages indicate year-over-year changes in the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s preferred home price metric.

Buyers looking for bargains are most likely to find them in Vancouver and Toronto, where prices have fallen considerably from their pandemic-era highs. But those discounts may be shrinking as buyers in each city slowly come off the sidelines.

Even though the Canadian housing market is widely considered to be in the doldrums, you’ll get a dose of reality when looking at local real estate listings. Aside from a handful of exceptions, most of the markets tracked by the Canadian Real Estate Association saw their benchmark prices increase in June.

It’s a useful reminder that there is no “Canadian real estate market”, just a whole bunch of real estate markets that happen to be in Canada.