Ontario Mortgage Rates
Ontario mortgage rate update: March 2026
The mortgage rate tea leaves might be a little harder to read in March. If the status quo stays in place, rates in Ontario should remain approachable.
The big question mark is what hostilities in the Middle East might do to government bond yields. If investors turn to bonds as a safer alternative to the stock market, bond prices will increase and drive bond yields down. When yields dip for a sustained period of time, fixed mortgage rates tend to follow suit.
That’s not what we’ve seen in early March. Bond yields rose sharply on March 2, an increase that’s been attributed to higher oil prices. An extended run of rising bond yields will give lenders leeway to increase their fixed rates.
All we know for certain now is that fixed rates are a little lower to start March than they were in mid-February. You can find three-year fixed rates and five-year fixed rates for less than 3.7% at some brokerages.
Variable mortgage rates will remain stable unless the Bank of Canada lowers its overnight rate on March 18. A rate cut is considered unlikely by most analysts.
Unless the Bank shocks the country by raising the overnight rate, variable mortgage rates should be Canadians’ most affordable option in March. The lowest variable rates in Ontario are around 3.4%.
2026 mortgage rate forecast
Variable rates
Variable mortgage rates aren’t expected to experience much change in 2026.
In December, the Bank of Canada said its overnight rate is at “about the right level” to fight inflation and support the economy, which should rule out any imminent rate cuts or increases.
So long as the Bank maintains its overnight rate, variable mortgage rates won’t budge. But if the Canadian economy falters, the Bank may be compelled to deliver a rate cut at some point.
Fixed rates
As of February 2026, fixed mortgage rates could decrease in the short-term in response to steadily declining government bond yields.
Long-term fixed-rate projections, however, are difficult to make with any accuracy. Bond yields, which lenders use to price their fixed rates, are determined by factors that are hard to predict, like the state of the economy and the expectations of individual investors.
Some institutions do their best, though. The British Columbia Real Estate Association, for example, expects fixed rates to remain at their current levels for most of 2026.
Read more about the Bank of Canada's latest rate announcement.
The BoC makes policy interest rate announcements eight times a year. Find out how its latest decision might impact Canada's housing market.
What’s a good mortgage rate in Ontario right now?
As of March 2026, some mortgage brokers in Ontario are offering fixed rates for under 3.6%, though they're well over 4% at most banks. The lowest variable rates are around 3.4%.
The rate offers you receive depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income, and whether you apply at a major bank or through a mortgage broker.
Ontario housing market update
2026 got off to a rocky start in the Ontario housing market. January home sales were down nearly 9% from December and almost 16% from January 2025. Sales were 27.1% below the 10-year average for the month.
Lagging sales are a bummer for sellers, but the steady build-up of listings in Ontario should provide buyers a less competitive spring market. At the end of January, active listings sat at just over 46,714, 8.3% higher than a year ago and the highest total for the month in more than ten years.
Home prices softened in most markets in January. The provincial average sale price sank 6.4% year-over-year to $778,102. On a monthly basis, most regions’ benchmark prices dipped, but generally by less than 2%.
Ontario home buyer resources
Ontario first-time home buyer programs
Areas including Waterloo, the County of Simcoe, Kingston and Chatham-Kent have home buyer assistance programs that can keep costs down.
Land transfer tax refund
When buying your first home in Ontario, you can claim a refund up to $4,000 of land transfer taxes. If you’re a first-time home buyer in Toronto, you may qualify for a $4,475 refund on your municipal land transfer tax.
Ontario land transfer taxes
In Ontario, you'll pay a land transfer tax based on your home's value. The rate tops out at at 2.5% for values more than $2 million.
- 0.5% of the first $55,000 of the home's value.
- 1.0% of any additional value between $55,000 and $250,000.
- 1.5% of any additional value between $250,000 and $400,000.
- 2.0% of any additional value between $400,000 and $2 million.
- 2.5% of any additional value that's more than $2,000,000 if the land contains no more than two single-family residences.
Mortgage calculators
Connect with Homewise to get a rate quote that's personalized to you.
Frequently asked questions
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Not likely, and if they do, it won't be by much. The Bank of Canada isn't expected to lower its overnight rate for most of the year, which means variable mortgage rates could be stuck at their current levels. Fixed mortgage rates will likely continue hovering between 3.9% and 4.3% well into 2026.
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
The mortgage rate you’re offered in Ontario will be based on two primary factors; the state of the economy and your financial situation.
Economic factors
Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the overnight rate increases or decreases, a lender’s prime rate follows suit. Variable mortgage rates are based on a lender’s prime rate, so as the prime rate rises or falls, so do variable rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are determined by activity in the government bond market, particularly the yields on one-, three- and five-year bonds. Fixed mortgage rates follow the movement of those yields.
Your financial situation
Factors specific to you also affect the rates you’re offered. These include:
Your credit score.
Your income.
Your total debts.
The loan type you choose.
The amount you’re borrowing.
The term length and amortization period of your loan.
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
Some factors behind rates are beyond your control, but there are steps you can take to possibly qualify for the best mortgage rates, including:
Improve your credit score. A higher credit score generally results in better offers. Get a better score by eliminating existing debt and paying future bills in full and on time.
Increase your income. It’s not always easy, but any additional income will improve your financial position. Lenders look at your income to assess your ability to afford a mortgage.
Decrease your total debts. Pay down personal loans, student loans or other types of debts. Lenders consider your total debt load when determining the details of your loan.
Consider all your options. See if adjusting the loan type, the term length or the amortization period of your loan could help.
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Clay Jarvis
Clay Jarvis