Ontario Mortgage Rates
Ontario mortgage rate update: March 2026
After the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, we know that variable mortgage rates in Ontario will continue hovering around their current levels until at least April 29, when the Bank makes its next overnight rate decision.
The mystery is what might happen to fixed rates in the coming weeks.
The Iran war sent government bond yields, which lenders use to price their fixed mortgage rates, flying in the first two weeks of March. In response, several lenders and brokerages increased their three-year fixed rates and five-year fixed rates.
Bond yields peaked on March 12, receded for a few days, and then shot up again after attacks were launched on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. Where yields — and fixed rates — go from here is anyone’s guess.
If you’re leaning toward a fixed rate for either a mortgage or renewal, consider getting pre-approved and locking in at today’s rates. If rates increase, you’ll be protected. And you’ll have access to lower rates if they come down.
2026 mortgage rate forecast
Variable rates
Variable mortgage rates aren’t expected to experience much change in 2026, though the war in Iran may change the game.
In December, the Bank of Canada said its overnight rate is at “about the right level” to fight inflation and support the economy, which should rule out any imminent rate cuts or increases.
So long as the Bank maintains its overnight rate, variable mortgage rates won’t budge.
But if the Canadian economy falters, the Bank may be compelled to deliver a rate cut at some point. And if the war in Iran drags on and causes inflation to spike, the Bank may announce a rate hike to tamp down inflation — regardless of the state of the economy.
Fixed rates
As of March 2026, fixed mortgage rates could rise in response to rapid increases in government bond yields. (Lenders use bond yields to price their fixed rates.) Yields skyrocketed after the war in Iran caused oil prices to spike, raising fears of inflation and future Bank of Canada rate increases.
Long-term fixed-rate projections, however, are difficult to make with any accuracy. Bond yields are determined by factors that are hard to predict, like the state of the economy and the expectations of individual investors.
Read more about the Bank of Canada's latest rate announcement.
The BoC makes policy interest rate announcements eight times a year. Find out how its latest decision might impact Canada's housing market.
What’s a good mortgage rate in Ontario right now?
As of March 2026, some mortgage brokers in Ontario are still offering fixed rates for under 3.7%, though they're well over 4% at most banks. The lowest variable rates are around 3.4%.
The rate offers you receive depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income, and whether you apply at a major bank or through a mortgage broker.
Ontario housing market update
It’s been a rough start to the year for the Ontario housing market. In February 2026, sales were down 5.8% versus January and 8.1% year-over-year. Year-to-date, sales are 11.8% lower than they were in the first two months of 2025.
While new listings dipped in February, the weaker sales still pushed up the number of active listings at the end of the month. Active listings in the province were just under 50,000 — 40.6% above the five-year average for the month.
No surprise, then, that home prices in Ontario kept softening. The provincial benchmark price, $746,900, fell 6.7% year-over-year. The benchmark prices for detached homes, townhouses and condos all fell.
Ontario home buyer resources
Ontario first-time home buyer programs
Areas including Waterloo, the County of Simcoe, Kingston and Chatham-Kent have home buyer assistance programs that can keep costs down.
Land transfer tax refund
When buying your first home in Ontario, you can claim a refund up to $4,000 of land transfer taxes. If you’re a first-time home buyer in Toronto, you may qualify for a $4,475 refund on your municipal land transfer tax.
Ontario land transfer taxes
In Ontario, you'll pay a land transfer tax based on your home's value. The rate tops out at at 2.5% for values more than $2 million.
- 0.5% of the first $55,000 of the home's value.
- 1.0% of any additional value between $55,000 and $250,000.
- 1.5% of any additional value between $250,000 and $400,000.
- 2.0% of any additional value between $400,000 and $2 million.
- 2.5% of any additional value that's more than $2,000,000 if the land contains no more than two single-family residences.
Mortgage calculators
Connect with Homewise to get a rate quote that's personalized to you.
Frequently asked questions
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Not if the war in Iran continues. Prior to the war, the Bank of Canada wasn't expected to touch its overnight rate for most of the year. Now there's a risk of multiple rate hikes, which would increase variable mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates have already risen due to the war, and may rise even further.
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
The mortgage rate you’re offered in Ontario will be based on two primary factors; the state of the economy and your financial situation.
Economic factors
Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the overnight rate increases or decreases, a lender’s prime rate follows suit. Variable mortgage rates are based on a lender’s prime rate, so as the prime rate rises or falls, so do variable rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are determined by activity in the government bond market, particularly the yields on one-, three- and five-year bonds. Fixed mortgage rates follow the movement of those yields.
Your financial situation
Factors specific to you also affect the rates you’re offered. These include:
Your credit score.
Your income.
Your total debts.
The loan type you choose.
The amount you’re borrowing.
The term length and amortization period of your loan.
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
Some factors behind rates are beyond your control, but there are steps you can take to possibly qualify for the best mortgage rates, including:
Improve your credit score. A higher credit score generally results in better offers. Get a better score by eliminating existing debt and paying future bills in full and on time.
Increase your income. It’s not always easy, but any additional income will improve your financial position. Lenders look at your income to assess your ability to afford a mortgage.
Decrease your total debts. Pay down personal loans, student loans or other types of debts. Lenders consider your total debt load when determining the details of your loan.
Consider all your options. See if adjusting the loan type, the term length or the amortization period of your loan could help.
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Clay Jarvis
Clay Jarvis