Ontario Mortgage Rates
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Ontario mortgage rate update: January 2026
It’s a new year, but for mortgage rates in Ontario, 2026 brings more of the same: static variable rates and fixed rates that threaten to edge higher.
Variable rates haven’t moved since the Bank of Canada held its overnight lending rate at 2.25% in December, and they won’t budge until the Bank delivers either a rate cut or rate increase. Neither is expected to happen for most of 2026, so variable rates might be as good as they’re going to get for months.
If the Bank maintains the overnight rate when it hands down its next rate decision on January 28, the lowest variable rates in Ontario should remain around 3.4% until at least mid-March.
Fixed mortgage rates face a much greater risk of increasing.
Government bond yields, which lenders use to price their fixed rates, hit a three-month high in December, receded over the holidays and then shot back up to begin the year. This kind of sustained upward pressure on yields gives lenders plenty of leeway to increase their fixed rates.
Fixed rates didn’t move much in December, so they’re not likely to spike in January. Three-year fixed rates and five-year fixed rates in Ontario should still be available for less than 3.9% at the end of the month.
2026 mortgage rate forecast
Variable rates
Variable mortgage rates aren’t expected to experience much change in 2026.
In December, the Bank of Canada said its overnight rate is at “about the right level” to fight inflation and support the economy, which should rule out any imminent rate cuts or increases.
So long as the Bank maintains its overnight rate, variable mortgage rates won’t budge. But if the Canadian economy falters, the Bank may be compelled to deliver a rate cut at some point.
Fixed rates
As of January 2026, it’s possible that fixed mortgage rates will increase in the short-term in response to elevated bond yields.
Long-term fixed-rate projections, however, are difficult to make with any accuracy. Bond yields, which lenders use to price their fixed rates, are determined by factors that are hard to predict, like the state of the economy and the expectations of individual investors.
Some institutions do their best, though. The British Columbia Real Estate Association, for example, expects fixed rates to remain at their current levels for most of 2026.
Read more about the Bank of Canada's latest rate announcement.
The BoC makes policy interest rate announcements eight times a year. Find out how its latest decision might impact Canada's housing market.
What’s a good mortgage rate in Ontario right now?
As of January 2026, some mortgage brokers in Ontario are offering fixed rates for under 3.7%, though they're well over 4% at most banks. The lowest variable rates are around 3.5%.
The rate offers you receive depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income, and whether you apply at a major bank or through a mortgage broker.
Ontario housing market update
Like most provincial housing markets, Ontario’s took a step backward in December. Home sales were down 1.6% from November — a decrease of just 227 transactions — but were up 1.2% year-over-year.
Overall, sales in 2025 came in 4.1% lower than in 2024.
A year of subdued sales activity led to a fairly massive pile up of listings. At the end of December, there were over 45,000 homes still for sale in Ontario — 12.6% more than a year ago and the highest level of active listings for the month in more than a decade.
No surprise, then, that home prices softened in several major markets in December. Hamilton, Brantford, Kitchener-Waterloo, Oakville and the Greater Toronto Area all saw monthly declines in their benchmark prices. The provincial average price, $800,420, decreased 3.9% year-over-year.
Ontario home buyer resources
Ontario first-time home buyer programs
Areas including Waterloo, the County of Simcoe, Kingston and Chatham-Kent have home buyer assistance programs that can keep costs down.
Land transfer tax refund
When buying your first home in Ontario, you can claim a refund up to $4,000 of land transfer taxes. If you’re a first-time home buyer in Toronto, you may qualify for a $4,475 refund on your municipal land transfer tax.
Ontario land transfer taxes
In Ontario, you'll pay a land transfer tax based on your home's value. The rate tops out at at 2.5% for values more than $2 million.
- 0.5% of the first $55,000 of the home's value.
- 1.0% of any additional value between $55,000 and $250,000.
- 1.5% of any additional value between $250,000 and $400,000.
- 2.0% of any additional value between $400,000 and $2 million.
- 2.5% of any additional value that's more than $2,000,000 if the land contains no more than two single-family residences.
Mortgage calculators
Frequently asked questions
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Not likely, and if they do, it won't be by much. The Bank of Canada isn't expected to lower its overnight rate for most of the year, which means variable mortgage rates could be stuck at their current levels. Fixed mortgage rates will likely continue hovering between 3.9% and 4.3% well into 2026.
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
The mortgage rate you’re offered in Ontario will be based on two primary factors; the state of the economy and your financial situation.
Economic factors
Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the overnight rate increases or decreases, a lender’s prime rate follows suit. Variable mortgage rates are based on a lender’s prime rate, so as the prime rate rises or falls, so do variable rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are determined by activity in the government bond market, particularly the yields on one-, three- and five-year bonds. Fixed mortgage rates follow the movement of those yields.
Your financial situation
Factors specific to you also affect the rates you’re offered. These include:
Your credit score.
Your income.
Your total debts.
The loan type you choose.
The amount you’re borrowing.
The term length and amortization period of your loan.
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
Some factors behind rates are beyond your control, but there are steps you can take to possibly qualify for the best mortgage rates, including:
Improve your credit score. A higher credit score generally results in better offers. Get a better score by eliminating existing debt and paying future bills in full and on time.
Increase your income. It’s not always easy, but any additional income will improve your financial position. Lenders look at your income to assess your ability to afford a mortgage.
Decrease your total debts. Pay down personal loans, student loans or other types of debts. Lenders consider your total debt load when determining the details of your loan.
Consider all your options. See if adjusting the loan type, the term length or the amortization period of your loan could help.
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Clay Jarvis
Clay Jarvis