Ontario Mortgage Rates
Ontario mortgage rate update: May 2026
In May, the mortgage market in Ontario will be the tale of two rate types.
Variable mortgage rates should remain relatively affordable after the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29, 2026. Since the overnight rate directly affects variable rates, they’ll stay at their current levels until the Bank announces either a hike or cut.
The Bank’s next rate announcement is scheduled for June 10. A rate hike could be in store if inflation ramps up and seems lasting. That makes choosing a variable rate somewhat risky, but it would still take multiple rate hikes for variables to become as high as today’s best fixed rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are where the real uncertainty lies.
Government bond yields remain elevated due to the Iran war’s impact on oil prices and inflation. This matters because lenders use yields to price their fixed rates.
The war could shift from stalemate to active conflict at any minute. If hostilities further damage energy infrastructure or destabilize the global supply chain, yields could spike and take fixed rates with them.
All of this adds up to a queasy situation for home buyers in Ontario. In times like these, it’s imperative to speak to a mortgage professional (or two) to weigh all of your options.
2026 mortgage rate forecast
Variable rates
Variable mortgage rates weren't forecasted to move in 2026, but the war in Iran has changed the game.
By driving up oil prices and inflation expectations, the Bank of Canada has warned that higher rates may be needed to keep inflation near its 2% target.
If the Bank increases its overnight rate, variable mortgage rates will follow suit. That could happen as early as this summer.
If the Canadian economy falters, the Bank may be compelled to deliver a rate cut at some point. But it's hard to picture a rate cut coming just if inflation's about to spike.
Fixed rates
As of May 2026, fixed mortgage rates have already risen considerably due to rapid increases in government bond yields. (Lenders use bond yields to price their fixed rates.) Yields skyrocketed after the war in Iran caused oil prices to spike, raising fears of inflation and future Bank of Canada rate increases.
Predicting where fixed rates head in the coming months depends heavily on the war in Iran. If it wraps up without further damage being done to oil and food supplies, bond yields should recede and take fixed mortgage rates with them. If the war escalates and worsens the global financial outlook, yields and fixed rates could increase even further.
Read more about the Bank of Canada's latest rate announcement.
The BoC makes policy interest rate announcements eight times a year. Find out how its latest decision might impact Canada's housing market.
What’s a good mortgage rate in Ontario right now?
As of May 2026, some mortgage brokers in Ontario are still offering fixed rates for around 3.9%, though they're well over 4% at most banks. The lowest variable rates are around 3.4%.
The rate offers you receive depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income, and whether you apply at a major bank or through a mortgage broker.
Ontario housing market update
Is the Ontario housing market finally approaching its bottom? In March 2026, home sales in the province were down only 0.2% compared to a year before, and were up 1.8% from February. Ontario was one of only four provinces to experience an increase in sales last month.
Even though the number of new listings was down almost 9% year-over-year, the number of active listings remains high. With 56,657 homes left for sale at the end of March, active listings were 49.2% above the 10-year average for the month.
So it’s only natural that home prices in Ontario keep losing ground. The provincial average sale price, $811,868, was 4.8% lower than a year ago. The average price in the Greater Toronto area slipped almost 7% to $1,017,796.
Ontario home buyer resources
Ontario first-time home buyer programs
Areas including Waterloo, the County of Simcoe, Kingston and Chatham-Kent have home buyer assistance programs that can keep costs down.
Land transfer tax refund
When buying your first home in Ontario, you can claim a refund up to $4,000 of land transfer taxes. If you’re a first-time home buyer in Toronto, you may qualify for a $4,475 refund on your municipal land transfer tax.
Ontario land transfer taxes
In Ontario, you'll pay a land transfer tax based on your home's value. The rate tops out at at 2.5% for values more than $2 million.
- 0.5% of the first $55,000 of the home's value.
- 1.0% of any additional value between $55,000 and $250,000.
- 1.5% of any additional value between $250,000 and $400,000.
- 2.0% of any additional value between $400,000 and $2 million.
- 2.5% of any additional value that's more than $2,000,000 if the land contains no more than two single-family residences.
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Frequently asked questions
Will Ontario mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Not if the war in Iran continues. Prior to the war, the Bank of Canada wasn't expected to touch its overnight rate for most of the year. Now there's a risk of multiple rate hikes, which would increase variable mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates have already risen due to the war, and may rise even further.
How do Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates?
The mortgage rate you’re offered in Ontario will be based on two primary factors; the state of the economy and your financial situation.
Economic factors
Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the overnight rate increases or decreases, a lender’s prime rate follows suit. Variable mortgage rates are based on a lender’s prime rate, so as the prime rate rises or falls, so do variable rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are determined by activity in the government bond market, particularly the yields on one-, three- and five-year bonds. Fixed mortgage rates follow the movement of those yields.
Your financial situation
Factors specific to you also affect the rates you’re offered. These include:
Your credit score.
Your income.
Your total debts.
The loan type you choose.
The amount you’re borrowing.
The term length and amortization period of your loan.
How do I qualify for a lower mortgage rate in Ontario?
Some factors behind rates are beyond your control, but there are steps you can take to possibly qualify for the best mortgage rates, including:
Improve your credit score. A higher credit score generally results in better offers. Get a better score by eliminating existing debt and paying future bills in full and on time.
Increase your income. It’s not always easy, but any additional income will improve your financial position. Lenders look at your income to assess your ability to afford a mortgage.
Decrease your total debts. Pay down personal loans, student loans or other types of debts. Lenders consider your total debt load when determining the details of your loan.
Consider all your options. See if adjusting the loan type, the term length or the amortization period of your loan could help.
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Clay Jarvis
Clay Jarvis