Tim Leonard
What is happening to house prices in the UK?
House prices in the UK held relatively steady in April, according to the latest data from Halifax. However, the 0.1% increase in prices across the month was a notable turnaround after they fell 0.9% in March. The lender also said prices were 1.1% higher compared to a year ago.
The latest Nationwide house price index, reported a week earlier, suggested UK house prices fell by 0.4% in April. The property portal Rightmove said that asking prices set by new house sellers had increased by 0.8% in May to a new record high of £375,131.
Land Registry data, which is a month or two behind the other indices but tends to be the most trusted indicator of how house prices are changing, shows that average UK house prices increased by 0.7% in March to £282,776, and were 1.8% higher compared with a year before.
| Nationwide | Halifax | Rightmove | Land Registry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £261,962 | £288,949 | £375,131 | £282,776 |
| Monthly change | -0.4% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| Annual change | +0.6% | +1.1% | +0.6% | +1.8% |
| Figures for | April 2024 | April 2024 | May 2024 | March 2024 |
| Methodology | Based on Nationwide mortgage transactions | Based on Lloyds Banking Group mortgage transactions | Based on asking prices of newly marketed properties | Based on official completed house sales data |
Average UK property prices
The average house price is £299,321 in England, £213,753 in Wales, and £191,678 in Scotland, according to Land Registry data for March 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, average property prices in Northern Ireland reached £178,499.
On a regional basis, the highest average house prices in England in March 2024 were in London (£499,663) and the South East (£373,223). The lowest average house prices were in the North East (£158,569).
Latest house price changes across the UK
The direction and pace of house price changes differ across the UK. Average house prices in England in March 2024 increased by 0.5% compared with the previous month, while in Wales prices increased by 0.9%. In Scotland prices increased 2.3% month-on-month, according to the latest Land Registry data.
On an annual basis, average house prices are 1.0% higher in England and 1.3% higher in Wales compared with a year earlier. Property prices in Scotland are 6.7% higher year-on-year. In Northern Ireland, monthly prices were 0.4% higher and annual prices were 4.0% higher in Q1 (January-March) 2024.
| UK | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £282,776 | £299,321 | £191,678 | £213,753 | £178,499 |
| One year earlier | £277,855 | £296,302 | £179,662 | £210,991 | £171,689 |
| Annual change | +1.8% | +1.0% | +6.7% | +1.3% | +4.0% |
| Monthly change | +0.7% | +0.5% | +2.3% | +0.9% | +0.4% |
Source: HM Land Registry. Figures for England, Scotland and Wales are for March 2024. Figures for Northern Ireland are for Q1 2024.
How property prices are changing where you live
Average house prices are higher in most regions of England compared to a year ago. The largest annual increase has been seen in Yorkshire and The Humber, where house prices are 5.0% higher than 12 months earlier. The next biggest annual rise is in the North West (+3.8%).
London has seen the largest annual fall (-3.4%) and the largest monthly fall (-0.9%) in property prices.
Are house prices falling?
The latest Halifax house price data shows property prices edged 0.1% higher in April compared with March. However, Nationwide figures for the same month suggest they fell by 0.4%. There were also times in the second half of last year when average property prices in the UK fell, though over 2023 as a whole, house prices remained relatively steady.
Property prices, and the direction and pace of price movements, change all the time. However, the underlying trend of steadily rising property prices that has generally been the norm in recent years currently appears to be on hold.
UK house price forecasts 2024 and beyond
Predictions as to what will happen to UK house prices in 2024 are mixed. Some forecasts suggest property prices will rise in 2024, while others predict they will fall.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Economics | +3.0% | +5.0% | – |
| Knight Frank | +3.0% | +3.0% | +4.0% |
| Office for Budget Responsibility | -2.3% | -0.4% | +2.2% |
| Savills | +2.5% | +3.5% | +4.5% |
Expert UK housing market predictions
Richard Donnell, Executive Director, Zoopla
“There is clear evidence that house prices are firming and the pace of price falls is slowing. We don’t believe that prices will start to rise as buyers face much higher mortgage repayments than in the recent past. The market is adjusting to higher borrowing costs and what we need is continued price stability which will create the environment for continued growth in sales and home moves. It’s important sellers remain realistic on what they can achieve for their home.”
Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages, Halifax
“…average house prices have largely plateaued in the early part of 2024. This reflects a housing market finding its feet in an era of higher interest rates. While borrowing costs remain more expensive than a few years ago, homebuyers are gaining confidence from a period of relative stability. Activity and demand is improving, evidenced by greater numbers of mortgage applications so far this year, while at an industry level mortgage approvals have reached their highest point in 18 months…If, as is still expected, downward moves in Bank Rate come into play later this year, fixed mortgage rates should fall. Combined with the resilience displayed by the housing market over recent months, we now expect property prices to rise modestly over the course of 2024.”
Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
“Feedback to the latest RICS survey demonstrates the sensitivity of the sales market to interest rates at the present time, given the continuing challenge around affordability. A modest back up in mortgage pricing has contributed to the flatlining in the buyer enquiries metric over the past month, as well as the slightly more cautious signals around near-term expectations. That said, there is still a strong perception that activity in the market will pick up in the latter part of the year and into 2025, irrespective of any political uncertainty around the general election.”
Is now a good time to buy a house?
Financially, the best time to buy a house is when mortgage rates and house prices are both low. In reality, the chances of this happening, and being able to time a purchase right, are slim. So instead, it’s important to find a property and mortgage you can afford without overstretching.
While mortgage rates have dropped since the middle of last year, they remain significantly higher than through most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Simply put, mortgages aren’t as affordable as a few years ago.
Some experts think a period of mortgage rate rises could be on the cards, and if your funds are tight, waiting for rates to come down may be your only option. Some are also predicting house prices will drop lower this year, which could help improve affordability further.
However, there are no guarantees that either of these things will happen. Indeed, it can’t be ruled out that we see the opposite, and mortgage rates and/or house prices rise.
Because of this, whether now is a good time to buy a property or not largely depends on your circumstances, priorities and outlook. Getting mortgage advice can help you figure out the numbers. But the ultimate decision to buy now or wait will rest with you.
» MORE: Check current mortgage rates
UK House Price FAQs
The average house price in the UK was £282,776 in March 2024, up from £277,855 a year earlier, according to the latest HM Land Registry UK House Price Index. This means UK property prices are 1.8% higher than a year before, and 0.7% higher month-on-month.
Some house price forecasts predict property prices will fall in 2024, while others predict they will rise. Sentiment has also recently changed among some commentators. For example, Savills started the year by predicting house prices would fall 3% during 2024, but now think property values will end the year 2.5% higher.
Listings of new properties for sale hit their highest level since late 2020 in April, according to RICS. At the same time, however, surveyors also reported that demand from home buyers had dropped slightly. Higher mortgage rates, increases in the cost of living, and weakened market confidence have all combined to dampen the housing market in the past year. However, there are some signs that the market may be picking up.
It is taking home sellers on average 62 days to find a buyer, according to the latest Rightmove data. A year ago, it took an average of 55 days to secure a buyer.
The average discount secured by home buyers on asking prices was £10,000 – or 3.9% – in March, according to Zoopla. In November last year, buyers were achieving an average discount of £14,250 or 4.5%. The property website said the fall is a result of sellers setting more realistic prices at the outset and more confidence among buyers.
There are several house price reports and indices published each month that provide insight into house price trends and the housing market in the UK. Four of the most respected indices are published by HM Land Registry, Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide, each showing how property prices are changing from month to month and on an annual basis. However, as each index tends to be based on different data and may be calculated in different ways, they often show different average house prices and changes when compared with one another.
Land Registry sold house price data is usually considered one of the most accurate housing market barometers because it is based on completed property sales, and includes cash purchases, as well as properties bought using a mortgage. However, because it is collated in this way, the data tends to be around two months behind other indices.
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