Tim Leonard
What is happening to house prices in the UK?
UK house prices fell by 0.4% in April, according to the latest Nationwide house price index. While property prices remain higher than a year earlier, the building society said that the pace of annual growth had slowed.
However, according to the property portal Rightmove the asking prices set by new house sellers increased month-on-month by 1.1% in April to £372,324.
Land Registry data, which is a month or two behind the other indices but tends to be the most trusted indicator of how house prices are changing, shows that average UK house prices increased by 0.4% in February to £280,660, but were 0.2% lower compared with a year before.
| Nationwide | Halifax | Rightmove | Land Registry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £261,962 | £288,430 | £372,324 | £280,660 |
| Monthly change | -0.4% | -1.0% | +1.5% | +0.4% |
| Annual change | +0.6% | +0.3% | +1.7% | -0.2% |
| Figures for | April 2024 | March 2024 | April 2024 | February 2024 |
| Methodology | Based on Nationwide mortgage transactions | Based on Lloyds Banking Group mortgage transactions | Based on asking prices of newly marketed properties | Based on official completed house sales data |
Average UK property prices
The average house price is £297,735 in England, £210,717 in Wales, and £187,807 in Scotland, according to Land Registry data for February 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2023, average property prices in Northern Ireland stood at £177,611.
On a regional basis, the highest average house prices in England in February 2024 were in London (£503,000) and the South East (£373,000). The lowest average house prices were in the North East (£160,000).
Latest house price changes across the UK
The direction and pace of house price changes differ across the UK. Average house prices in England in February 2024 increased by 0.6% compared with the previous month, while in Wales prices increased by 0.4%. However, in Scotland prices decreased 0.60% month-on-month, according to the latest Land Registry data.
On an annual basis, average house prices are 1.1% lower in England and 1.2% lower in Wales compared with a year earlier. However, property prices in Scotland are 5.6% higher year-on-year. In Northern Ireland, monthly prices were 0.9% lower and annual prices were 1.4% higher in Q4 (October-December) 2023.
| UK | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average house price | £280,660 | £297,735 | £187,807 | £210,717 | £177,611 |
| One year earlier | £281,262 | £301,064 | £177,921 | £213,351 | £171,689 |
| Annual change | -0.2% | -1.1% | +5.6% | -1.2% | +1.4% |
| Monthly change | +0.4% | +0.6% | -0.6% | +0.4% | -0.9% |
Source: HM Land Registry. Figures for England, Scotland and Wales are for February 2024. Figures for Northern Ireland are for Q4 2023.
How property prices are changing where you live
Average house prices are lower in the majority of regions in England compared with a year ago. The largest annual fall has been seen in London, where house prices are 4.80% lower than 12 months earlier. The next biggest annual drop is in the West Midlands (-2.9%).
The North East has seen both the most significant annual house price growth (+2.9%) and the largest monthly increase (+3.2%).
Are house prices falling?
The latest Nationwide house price data shows property prices fell in April compared with March. There were also times in the second half of last year when average property prices in the UK fell, though over 2023 as a whole, house prices remained relatively steady.
Property prices, and the direction and pace of price movements, change all the time. However, the underlying trend of steadily rising property prices that has generally been the norm in recent years currently appears to be on hold.
UK house price forecasts 2024 and beyond
Predictions as to what will happen to UK house prices in 2024 are mixed. Some forecasts suggest property prices will rise in 2024, while others predict they will fall.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Economics | +3.0% | +5.0% | – |
| Knight Frank | +3.0% | +3.0% | +4.0% |
| Office for Budget Responsibility | -2.3% | -0.4% | +2.2% |
| Savills | -3.0% | +3.5% | +5.0% |
Expert UK housing market predictions
Tim Bannister, Director of Property Science at Rightmove
“While some buyers, across all sectors, will feel that their affordability has improved compared to last year due to wage growth and stable house prices, others will be more impacted by cost-of-living challenges and stickier than expected high mortgage rates. Despite these factors, it has been a positive start to the year in comparison to the more muted start to 2023. However, agents report that the market remains very price-sensitive, and despite the current optimism, these are not the conditions to support substantial price growth. Sellers who are keen to secure their sale will still need to price realistically for their local market and avoid being overambitious at the start of marketing to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer.”
Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages
“Underlying demand is positive, as greater numbers of people buy homes, demonstrated by recent rises in mortgage approvals across the industry and underpinned by a strong labour market. And with rental costs rising at record rates, home ownership continues to be an attractive option for those who can make the sums work. However, the housing market remains sensitive to the scale and pace of interest rate changes, and with only a modest improvement in affordability on the horizon, this will likely limit the scope for significant house price increases this year.”
Tarrant Parsons, Senior Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
“Demand continues to recover gradually across the UK housing market, with new buyer enquiries rising for a third month in succession according to the latest survey feedback. With the inflation backdrop turning a little less difficult of late, this has led to expectations that the Bank of England will be able to start lowering interest rates later in the year. This should continue to support the market to a certain degree going forward. In keeping with this, near-term sales expectations point to an improving outlook, albeit the scope for an acceleration in activity will still be relatively limited given mortgage rates are set to remain much higher than in 2020/21.”
Is now a good time to buy a house?
Financially, the best time to buy a house is when mortgage rates and house prices are both low. In reality, the chances of this happening, and being able to time a purchase right, are slim. So instead, it’s important to find a property and mortgage you can afford without overstretching.
While mortgage rates have dropped since the middle of last year, they remain significantly higher than through most of the 2010s and early 2020s. Simply put, mortgages aren’t as affordable as a few years ago.
Some experts think mortgage rates could fall in the coming months, and if your funds are tight, waiting for rates to come down may be your only option. Some are also predicting house prices will drop lower this year, which could help improve affordability further.
However, there are no guarantees that either of these things will happen. Indeed, it can’t be ruled out that we see the opposite, and mortgage rates and/or house prices rise.
Because of this, whether now is a good time to buy a property or not largely depends on your circumstances, priorities and outlook. Getting mortgage advice can help you figure out the numbers. But the ultimate decision to buy now or wait will rest with you.
» MORE: Check current mortgage rates
UK House Price FAQs
The average house price in the UK was £280,660 in February 2024, down from £281,262 a year earlier, according to the latest HM Land Registry UK House Price Index. This means UK property prices are 0.2% lower than a year before, but have increased by 0.4% month-on-month.
Some house price forecasts predict property prices will fall in 2024, while others predict they will rise. For example, Capital Economics and Knight Frank forecast house prices will rise 3% in 2024, but Savills predicts a fall of 3%.
Listings of new properties for sale increased for the fourth month in a row in March, according to RICS, while surveyors also reported that demand from home buyers increased at the same time. Higher mortgage rates, increases in the cost of living, and weakened market confidence have all combined to dampen the housing market in the past year. However, there are some signs that the market may be picking up.
It is taking home sellers on average 64 days to find a buyer, according to the latest Rightmove data. A year ago, it took an average of 55 days to secure a buyer.
The average discount secured by home buyers on asking prices was £10,000 – or 3.9% – in March, according to Zoopla. In November last year, buyers were achieving an average discount of £14,250 or 4.5%. The property website said the fall is a result of sellers setting more realistic prices at the outset and more confidence among buyers.
There are several house price reports and indices published each month that provide insight into house price trends and the housing market in the UK. Four of the most respected indices are published by HM Land Registry, Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide, each showing how property prices are changing from month to month and on an annual basis. However, as each index tends to be based on different data and may be calculated in different ways, they often show different average house prices and changes when compared with one another.
Land Registry sold house price data is usually considered one of the most accurate housing market barometers because it is based on completed property sales, and includes cash purchases, as well as properties bought using a mortgage. However, because it is collated in this way, the data tends to be around two months behind other indices.
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