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Published November 13, 2024
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2024 Housing Market: How It Started, How It Went

Experts predicted the real estate market would gain steam in 2024, but hesitant buyers kept it from truly breaking out.

Edited By

It’s hard to predict the future, but plenty of people try — real estate experts included. Many of those experts thought pent-up demand would break through in 2024 after a tough 2023. 

There were indeed some inflection points — interest rates fell and average prices rose — but Canadian home buyers have generally been slow to come off the sidelines. 

Let’s take a closer look at where we started the year and how things actually unfolded. 

Interest Rates

2024 predictions: Cautiously optimistic

At the beginning 2024, economists predicted the Bank of Canada would drop the overnight rate from 5% to between 3.5% and 4% by year’s end. A Bank of Canada survey in early 2024 also showed that consumers also expected rates to drop.[1]

What happened: Rates fell…a few times

The BoC has cut the overnight rate multiple times; it currently stands at 3.75%, and the group meets once more before the year’s end. One effect: More homeowners have opted for variable rates as rates have fallen.[2]

Home prices 

2024 predictions: Prices will go up, but nothing crazy

Where did real estate experts see prices going when 2024 started?

  • REMAX predicted the national average sales price would rise 0.5%.[3] 
  • Royal LePage predicted the aggregate price of a home in Canada would rise 5.5%.[4]

While these sources calculate prices in slightly different ways, they pointed in a similar direction: a modest rise in home prices in 2024. 

What happened: Depends where you live

A hot start in the first three months of 2024 gave way to lackluster demand and stagnating national prices. But when you look at individual markets, you’ll find a bigger price variance. In Alberta and New Brunswick, for example, prices have jumped close to 10% while B.C. and Ontario saw prices hold or dip slightly. 

Home sales activity 

2024 predictions: Notable bump in sales

  • An RBC report from January projected home resales would grow 9.2% in 2024.[5]
  • CREA predicted 2024 would see 10% more homes sold compared to 2023.[6] 

What happened: Bump in sales? Yes. Notable? Debatable. 

Those early estimates were a bit too optimistic, and buyers showed more restraint than expected. 

  • In July, RBC released a new forecast that predicted a 3.9% increase in home resales by year’s end.[7]
  • In October, CREA revised its year-end sales estimate from a 10% annual increase to a 5.2% increase.[8] 

Outstanding questions for next year

If you hope to buy a house in 2025, you probably can’t help but wonder what lies ahead. Next year’s burning questions include: 

  • Will more buyers enter the market? If so, how high will prices go? 
  • Will housing supply rebound or continue to fall short? 
  • Will home buyers’ be able to save for down payments amid rising debt burdens?  
  • What effects will a higher price cap on insured mortgages and expanding access to 30-year amortization periods have?

No matter what happens, early preparation — and an open mind — will help you stay on track toward your goal.

Article Sources

Works Cited
  1. Bank of Canada, “Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
  2. RBC, “Canada's housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
  3. The Canadian Real Estate Association, “CREA Forecasting Increase in Home Sales for 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
  4. RBC, “Home resale and price forecast,” accessed November 8, 2024.
  5. The Canadian Real Estate Association, “Scene Is Set for Home Sales Rebound in 2025; September Sees Modest Gains,” accessed November 8, 2024.

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