Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates held steady this week, with the average 30-year fixed remaining at 6.14% APR. Even though the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points this month, mortgage rates didn’t immediately follow — a reminder that the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. Instead, markets react to broader economic signals, especially movement in the 10-year Treasury. After months of mixed data and the federal government shutdown interrupting key reports, lenders and investors have lacked clarity on the economy’s direction, keeping rates from moving much either way.

That picture may finally be sharpening. Fresh November data shows both easing inflation and a softening job market — a combination that often nudges mortgage rates lower. Unemployment ticked up to 4.6%, while inflation cooled more than expected to 2.7% year over year. If markets grow more confident that the Fed will continue cutting rates to support a slowing economy, mortgage rates could begin drifting down in anticipation. And while things may still feel a bit uncertain for buyers right now, these latest trends suggest we could see some real rate relief ahead — especially for homeowners hoping to refinance in the future.

»MORE: Mortgage refinance calculator

December mortgage rates forecast

Mortgage rates could continue to trend higher in December, especially after a bumpy November filled with mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. With December's Fed meeting behind us, lenders will shift their focus to what they think the Fed will do in 2026, and policymakers are still split on whether to prioritize fighting inflation or supporting the job market.

We’ve already seen how disagreement inside the Fed can send rates bouncing around from one day to the next, depending on who’s speaking. With key economic reports like GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation index delayed, there’s even less clarity than usual — and that tends to make lenders nervous. Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae expect rates to average around 6.3% this quarter, which means rates would need to rise in December to hit that mark.

»MORE: How the Fed Affects Mortgage Rates