Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates are still hanging out at their lowest levels in years — welcome news for homeowners ready to refinance and buyers hoping for a break. The average 30-year fixed rate was 5.87% APR for the week ending Feb. 26, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. That’s slightly higher than last week, but still the lowest we’ve seen since September 2022, with most major surveys now officially below 6%. On the surface, that’s a bit surprising: recent inflation data and typical Fed signals would normally point to higher rates, not lower ones.

The bigger story is happening behind the scenes in the bond market. Falling 10-year Treasury yields — along with a narrowing “spread” between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities — have helped pull mortgage rates down. Add in aggressive mortgage-backed securities purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, plus expanded caps on how much they can hold, and you’ve got extra support keeping rates in the fives. If that backing continues, today’s lower rates may have more staying power than expected.

» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

Spring mortgage rates forecast

Now that rates have slipped below 6%, the big question is whether they’ll stay there. Most projections suggest modest movement in the near term, with spring likely bringing clearer direction.