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AI is changing how we think about work and higher education, but many of this year’s high school graduates will take the traditional college path.
Nearly half of 2026 high school graduates (46%) will go to a four-year college, according to NerdWallet’s annual analysis of federal data. And more than a third of those going to a public, four-year university (35%) will take on student loan debt.
This data indicates how things are, but certainly not the way students and their parents wish they were.
About two-thirds of Americans (65%) think a four-year college degree is generally a smart financial move, but even more (78%) agree that the federal student loan system is broken. This according to a NerdWallet survey conducted online by The Harris Poll in March 2026 to tap into Americans’ perspectives on college and student loans.
Additional survey findings:
- Nearly 7 in 10 Americans (69%) say that going to college isn’t as important as it used to be to earn a good living.
- Over three-quarters of Americans (77%) say trades jobs are more secure than office jobs.
“This year's high school graduates face changes on multiple fronts when it comes to paying for college. For one, federal student loans taken out after July 1 will have a new set of repayment options. But students' more immediate concern may be choosing a major — with AI reshaping so many fields, it's harder to feel confident that a course of study will pay off after graduation. College-bound grads' best bet will be to first pursue funding that doesn't require repayment, like scholarships, grants and work-study.” – Kate Wood, NerdWallet home and mortgage expert
2026 high school grads could take out over $43K in loans
A high school graduate entering a four-year, public college in fall 2026 could take out an estimated $43,500 in student loans, based on NerdWallet’s analysis of National Center for Education Statistics data. This assumes they take five years to graduate and use loans to cover their costs each year of attendance.
Why five years? Many college students don’t complete a bachelor’s degree in the traditional four years — the fall 2019 college cohort had a five-year completion rate of 57%, according to research from the National Student Clearinghouse. Others stopped attending or are still working toward their degree beyond that.
How to keep student loan debt to a minimum
More than $43K for a bachelor’s degree is significant, and the ease with which it can be paid off will be highly dependent on landing a job out of college and managing other financial obligations. Minimizing the amount of debt a student graduates with can begin early in their college career.
Keep price in mind. Reducing reliance on student loans may mean forgoing your dream school. To keep costs down, focus on public schools in your state of residence, unless you’re able to get hefty scholarships elsewhere. It’s also a smart move to take prerequisite classes at a cheaper community college and then transfer to a four-year university to finish your degree.
Grants and scholarships, first. Before borrowing money for school, take advantage of any free money that may be available. Fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) not just for federal student loan eligibility, but also to see if you qualify for need-based grants and work study. You may also be awarded institutional aid — grants and scholarships from your college — and state aid through filing your FAFSA.
Scholarships can often be found by contacting your school’s financial aid office, but don’t stop there. Check out vetted scholarship search engines for a bevy of need- and merit-based private scholarships you may qualify for. Every dollar you get in grants and scholarships is a dollar you won’t have to borrow with interest.
Max out federal student loans — and other options — before turning to private. Nearly 4 in 5 Americans (78%) agree that the federal student loan system is broken, according to the NerdWallet/Harris Poll survey. But these loans are still generally more affordable and come with more protections than private loans.
Federal student loans are capped at yearly amounts and $31,000 in total for dependent undergraduates, assuming a five year graduation. But we suggest exhausting other resources before turning to private loans for the remaining funds you might need. Try to make up the difference with grants, scholarships, a part-time job or parental help, and then turn to private loans only if necessary.
Make payments while in school, if possible. Subsidized federal student loans are awarded to students with financial need and don’t accrue interest until repayment begins. Unsubsidized loans accrue interest on the amount borrowed while you’re in school as well as during the six-month grace period following graduation.
Let’s say you’re a dependent student and borrow the full $31,000 in federal loans over the course of five years, all of which are unsubsidized. When repayment begins, you’d owe $38,061 and interest would start accruing on that entire amount. If you instead aim to pay down the interest while in school and start repayment with just the initial $31,000 you borrowed, you’d save around $4,000 in additional interest over the life of the loan.
Student loan repayment is undergoing a major overhaul in July
Federal loan repayment options have gone through significant changes in recent years, as administrations and policies have changed. Just weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Education announced that those currently enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) repayment plan will have to switch to a different existing repayment plan in the coming months, or be automatically enrolled in the new tiered standard plan.
And for high school graduates heading to college this coming fall, there will be two repayment plans for federal student loans taken out on July 1, 2026 or later: a tiered standard plan and Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP).
Payment amounts under RAP are dependent on a person’s loan amount, income and family size. Minimum payments for most will be 1-10% of adjusted gross income (AGI), and as low as $10. Payments are then reduced by $50 a month for each dependent. After 30 years of payments, any remaining student loan balance will be forgiven. This option may be best for those with low incomes and high student loan balances, because it includes an interest subsidy and ensures your principal (the amount you borrowed) is reduced by at least $50 for every month of payment.
The new standard repayment plan spreads payments evenly over 10 to 25 years, depending on the amount of student loans taken out. This is generally the option we’d recommend for those who can reasonably make the monthly payments, because it could cost less and result in faster repayment than RAP. That isn’t to say it’s cheap, though.
If you take out the total allowed student loans of $31,000 for an undergraduate degree and go into the tiered standard plan of 15 years, you’d pay $28,266 in interest. This assumes all loans are unsubsidized — and therefore, you were accruing interest while enrolled — and that your interest rate on all loans is the current rate of 6.39%. Your monthly payment would be $329. If you opt to pay more than what’s required, by another $100 a month, for example, it would shave off five years of payments and nearly $8K in interest.
The Department of Education has a loan simulator to help you make decisions about repayment, but at the time of publication, it doesn’t yet reflect the repayment options for student loans taken out on July 1, 2026 or later.
AI is impacting postsecondary education and career decisions
If the prospect of up to 30 years of student loan repayment has you wondering if college is even worth pursuing, you’re probably not alone. According to our survey, nearly 7 in 10 Americans (69%) say that going to college isn’t as important as it used to be to earn a good living, and 77% say trades jobs are more secure than office jobs.
In addition to the high cost of postsecondary education, navigating career decisions in the age of AI can be fraught. According to a recent survey of over 5,000 high school students by EAB, more than 2 in 5 (43%) say AI will influence the career or job they pursue. And 39% are considering a college alternative because of advances in AI technology.
So what’s a high school graduate to do? While the decision-making around higher education may look a little different than in generations past, the rise of AI doesn’t preclude you from building a fulfilling career with intention.
That might mean choosing a field that’s less likely to be automated — perhaps something hands-on or requiring strong interpersonal skills — or building a broad skillset that lends itself to different career paths, instead of just one or two possibilities. It also likely means a willingness to engage with AI and get good at using it to stay competitive. AI isn’t going away and no matter which profession you choose, learning to work with it rather than fight against it can give you more options.
Cite as NerdWallet (2026). “2026 High School Grad Analysis: Over $43K in Loans for a Bachelor’s Degree.” Retrieved from https://www.nerdwallet.com/student-loans/studies/high-school-grad-analysis
Methodology
The 2026 High School Grad survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of NerdWallet from March 3-5, 2026, among 2,091 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 2.7 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. This credible interval will be wider among subsets of the surveyed population of interest. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact [email protected].
For our analysis of high school graduates enrolling in a four year college, enrollees who would take on student loans and the amount of loans they’d need to take on, we used the most recent available data from the National Center for Education Statistics (2022-23). Projections were made for future years using a conservative past growth rate.
Change in tuition and fee costs for a public four-year college came from 2025 data from CollegeBoard.
Federal student loan payment and interest calculations assumed a max of $31,000 in unsubsidized loans, the current undergraduate interest rate of 6.39% and the new tiered standard repayment plan of 15 years for a loan between $25,000-$49,999.
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