Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Kate Wood
By Kate Wood 
Updated
Edited by Mary Makarushka

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Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage rates jumped the week ending April 11, with the 30-year fixed rate flirting with 7%. With the release of new inflation numbers, the prospect of lower interest rates seemed to grow more distant.

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.94% APR, up 19 basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% APR, up 19 basis points from the previous week's average.

  • The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.86% APR, up 15 basis points from the previous week's average.

Mortgage rates have climbed this month, and the latest economic data diminished the prospect of them falling any time soon. On April 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest consumer price index. CPI is a key measure of the rate of inflation, and taming inflation is one of the Federal Reserve's core goals. The Fed raised interest rates and is now holding them steady to try to slow inflation.

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And yet the March CPI came in hotter than expected, climbing year-over-year at a rate of 3.5%. That's well above the Federal Reserve's goal of a 2% rate of inflation.

The year began with heady anticipation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, but those hopes keep fading. Based on the Fed governors' last official prognostication in March, we should expect the equivalent of three 25-basis-point cuts in 2024, dropping the federal funds rate by 0.75%. The question is when in 2024 those might begin, a timeline that seems to keep receding.

Fed officials haven't backed off from their March predictions, but they've also repeatedly stated that controlling inflation remains a top priority and all decisions will be data-driven. Speaking at Stanford University earlier this month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated these points: "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent. Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy."

All of this is to say that home buyers waiting for rates to fall might need to recalibrate their expectations. In this environment, rates staying stable rather than rising could be the best-case scenario, because if economic data keeps running counter to the Fed's plans, mortgage interest rates could potentially be pushed higher. Eager buyers' best bets may be to focus on what their budgets can accommodate at current interest rates rather than hoping for a significant drop in the near future.

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April mortgage rates outlook

Mortgage rates shouldn’t change much in April, as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. Inflation's decline is likely to continue its glacial pace in April. Mortgage rates are influenced by the inflation rate, so if they move much in April, they're more likely to fall than to rise. Either way, the change probably won't be by much.

What other forecasters say

Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all predict that mortgage rates will fall over the next 12 months. But they don't expect much of a drop from April through June. In Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey, the 30-year mortgage averaged 6.75% from January through March, and forecasters predict that it will average a tad lower in the second quarter.

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