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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates eased for a second straight week, but with the Fed's next meeting and oil prices both still in play, the calm may not last.

Abby Badach Doyle
Jeanette Margle
Updated
Mortgage rates dipped again this week — the average 30-year fixed rate eased four basis points to 6.59% APR in the week ending Aug. 13, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. Cooling inflation helped keep things calm, but don't get too comfortable: four basis points won't move your monthly payment much, and rates still aren't low.
Next up: the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting, where markets are now leaning toward a hold rather than a hike — good news, but not a guarantee of lower rates ahead. Wild cards like Middle East oil price swings and shaky jobs data could just as easily send things back up. For buyers already squeezed by high home prices, the move is the same either way: don't put your search on hold waiting for a "perfect" number. Focus on what fits your budget today, compare multiple lenders, and be ready to lock in when the math works.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: August 13, 2026

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August mortgage rates forecast

The outlook for August rates isn't great for buyers hoping for relief. Ongoing tension in the Middle East is the biggest wildcard — rates have been moving in lockstep with Middle East news since the war began, and with no clear resolution in sight, that's unlikely to change.
On top of that, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation and preference for fewer public communications has left markets unsettled. Bond yields actually rose during Warsh's press conference as markets grew skeptical that inflation would be addressed decisively. Whether the Fed eventually acts or stays put, both scenarios could push mortgage rates higher.
The best-case outcome for mortgage rates this August would be a few more weeks of stability, or a surprise ceasefire in Iran — but after the last peace agreement fell apart, markets aren't exactly holding their breath.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

DATA: What's the Homebuying Climate this month?

NerdWallet's Homebuying Climate Index puts a familiar weather label on how favorable conditions are for home buyers.
For July, our analysis puts the Climate Index at 54.2 out of 100, keeping the index in Partly Cloudy territory for the 48th straight month as most variables hold relatively steady.
Read more about the factors affecting this month's index to gauge how they might affect your homebuying plans.
Explore NerdWallet's Homebuying Climate Index
Proprietary research based on the latest federal data

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