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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Oil price spikes push mortgage rates to a 10-month high.

Taylor Getler
Dawnielle Robinson-Walker
Updated
If you were hoping for a break on mortgage rates this week, no such luck. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed eight basis points to 6.47% in the week ending July 16, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow.
Here's what's driving the next move: renewed fighting and a naval blockade in Iran have pushed oil prices up 10% over the past five days, and rising oil prices tend to spook mortgage lenders into hiking rates to protect against inflation.
On the flip side, June's inflation report came in cooler than expected, and futures traders currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting — so if that "no change" outlook holds, rates could ease back a bit. If you're house hunting and the payment works for your budget now, there's little upside in waiting on a maybe. And if you bought when rates were closer to 7%, it may still be worth checking the math on a refinance.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: July 16, 2026

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July mortgage rates forecast

Don't hold your breath for mortgage rate relief in July. Rates are expected to finish the month right around where they started, and dips may be short-lived. The Federal Reserve isn't in a position to cut rates with inflation still running well above its 2% target and the job market holding up fine.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a hawkish stance on inflation and a preference for fewer public communications from the central bank — which could mean more abrupt swings in mortgage rates going forward.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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