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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Rates inch up as inflation hits a three-year high.

Abby Badach Doyle
Johanna Arnone
Updated
Mortgage rates barely budged this week, but a fresh inflation report is a reminder that relief isn't coming fast. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose two basis points to 6.33% APR for the week ending June 25, according to Zillow data provided to NerdWallet.
Rates have been pulled in both directions lately — cooling tensions with Iran have pushed oil prices down, which could ease inflation pressure down the road. But today's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed prices rising at an annual rate of 4.1%, the highest in three years, giving borrowers little reason to expect a meaningful drop in rates anytime soon.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 25, 2026

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Summer mortgage rates forecast

The Federal Reserve signaled last week that it's unlikely to cut the federal funds rate this year — and may actually raise it to fight inflation. That's a big deal for mortgage shoppers, since higher Fed rates tend to keep mortgage rates elevated too. Add in everyday inflation eating into budgets and making it harder to save for a down payment, and the path to homeownership stays steep.
The one silver lining: If oil prices stay low and inflation has peaked, rates could gradually ease later this year. But don't expect a dramatic drop.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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