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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Inflation fears creep back in, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Kate Wood
Dawnielle Robinson-Walker
Updated
Mortgage rates are inching higher again as inflation worries creep back into the picture. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 11 basis points to 6.39% APR in the week ending July 9, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow.
With three more Fed meetings left this year and fresh inflation numbers dropping next week, any hint of a rate hike could push mortgage rates up further. That's a tough spot to be in if you're already feeling squeezed by high home prices and everyday costs.
The good news? Rates are still nearly half a point below where they were a year ago, so if you bought recently, it might be worth running the numbers on a refinance. And if you're house hunting and the monthly payment works for your budget today, there's no prize for holding out for a better market.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: July 9, 2026

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July mortgage rates forecast

Don't hold your breath for mortgage rate relief in July. Rates are expected to finish the month right around where they started, and dips may be short-lived. The Federal Reserve isn't in a position to cut rates with inflation still running well above its 2% target and the job market holding up fine.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a hawkish stance on inflation and a preference for fewer public communications from the central bank — which could mean more abrupt swings in mortgage rates going forward.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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