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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Oil price spikes push mortgage rates to a 10-month high.

Abby Badach Doyle
Jeanette Margle
Updated
If you were hoping for a break on mortgage rates this week, no such luck. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed four basis points to 6.51% APR in the week ending July 23, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow.
Growing instability in the Middle East is driving this week's upward trend. The Iran conflict pushed Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel today, and rising oil prices tend to spook mortgage lenders into hiking rates to protect against inflation.
On the flip side, last week, June's inflation report came in cooler than expected, and futures traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting next week.
If you're house hunting and the payment works for your budget now, there's little upside in waiting on a maybe. And if you bought when rates were closer to 7%, it may still be worth checking the math on a refinance.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: July 16, 2026

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July mortgage rates forecast

Rates are expected to finish the month right around where they started, and any small dips may be short-lived — including potential movement around the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. The Federal Reserve certainly isn't in a position to cut rates with inflation still running well above its 2% target and the job market holding up fine.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a hawkish stance on inflation and a preference for fewer public communications from the central bank — which could mean more abrupt swings in mortgage rates going forward.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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