Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast
Mortgage rates rose to 5.94% this week as Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and renewed inflation concerns.
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Editor & Content Strategist Mortgage rates climbed to 5.94% APR for the average 30-year fixed loan in the week ending March 6, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. That’s seven basis points higher than the week before. Even so, rates remain meaningfully lower than they were a year ago, and February’s average APR came in at 5.92% — down from both January and February 2025.
The increase appears tied to escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices higher and rattled financial markets. Because Iran is a major oil producer, instability there can fuel inflation concerns — and when inflation looks sticky, the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut rates. In fact, some policymakers have signaled they’re prepared to hold rates steady if inflation resurges. For borrowers, that means mortgage rates could remain sensitive to global events and inflation data in the weeks ahead.
Spring mortgage rates forecast
With rates edging back toward 6%, the question is whether this week’s increase is temporary or the start of a broader move higher. Much will depend on how tensions in the Middle East affect oil prices and inflation. For now, most projections call for modest movement this spring, though global uncertainty could add some volatility.
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