Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

As markets began to doubt whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates again, average mortgage rates rose to 6.23% APR the week ending Nov. 20, according to data provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A delayed September jobs report showed modest hiring and slightly higher unemployment, offering little clarity ahead of the Fed’s December meeting.

Mortgage rates tend to anticipate the direction of the federal funds rate, which is why average rates for home loans are inching back up this week.

Meanwhile, lower rates in October briefly boosted home sales and listings, but housing inventory remains well below pre-pandemic levels, and prices are still high. Even if the Fed cuts rates in December — a big if — the slight relief would be unlikely to make a big dent in affordability challenges.

»MORE: How the Fed Affects Mortgage Rates

November Mortgage Rates Forecast

All eyes are on whether central bankers will continue cutting rates or stand pat when they meet again Dec. 9-10. The Fed’s focus may be shifting from protecting jobs to keeping inflation in check. A modest rebound in hiring may ease concerns about unemployment, and inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s target. Raising the federal funds rate is the Federal Reserve's method for curbing inflation. That means another rate cut is looking less and less likely — and mortgage rates could keep drifting upward.