When fuel prices jump, news coverage often features photos of gas station signs in pricey parts of the country. But drivers in states with high gas prices don’t necessarily fare the worst when you check the receipts. What you spend overall — not the rate per gallon — is what matters.
Why gas prices fall short
The price of gas doesn’t indicate how much individuals spend on gas, and therefore how much pain people experience when there is an oil price shock. If that sounds counterintuitive, consider bananas. A shopper doesn’t just tell the clerk that the bananas in their cart cost 59 cents per pound; the bananas need to be weighed to arrive at the total cost. Like the price of bananas, gas is priced at a rate. That means that the rate on the gas pump can’t capture total spending without a second variable — in this case, the number of gallons purchased.
Data: Gas price sensitivity by state
Across the United States, the impact of higher pump prices varies widely from state to state. This sensitivity can be measured by looking at the typical distance residents drive as well as the fuel efficiency of the typical cars on the road. Estimating the overall fuel spend based on these factors paints a clearer picture of the financial impact when gas prices jump. Residents of states with greater price sensitivity are those most likely to be paying more for gas overall when prices go up.
Key Findings
We gathered information about consumption and found where higher prices may hurt the worst.
- For every 10 cents per gallon that prices rise, the average nationwide change in spending on fuel is $1.05 per week. Over the course of a year, that’s about $50 in extra spending. That may seem manageable, but costs can increase further in other scenarios.
- Drivers in the most price-sensitive states would pay closer to $2 more per week on average when fuel prices rise by 10 cents a gallon. If those prices held for a year, that’s $104 in extra spending.
- If gas prices rise by 50 cents a gallon, drivers nationwide may pay about $270 more per year, or about $500 in the most price-sensitive states.
- A household with two drivers may end up paying about $550 more per year if fuel prices rise by 50 cents a gallon. That number could exceed $1,000 in the most price-sensitive states.
State-specific findings
The states most affected by rising gas prices are Wyoming, Oklahoma, Montana and North Dakota. In these states, pickup trucks dominate the list of most popular new vehicles. Many large pickup trucks get less than 20 miles per gallon, bringing down the statewide average fuel efficiency; more efficient vehicles can get at least twice as many miles per gallon. Drivers in these highly affected states also drive more miles than the national average, due in part to the states’ large areas and low population densities.
At the other end of the spectrum, drivers in Rhode Island, New York, California and Washington are, on average, less sensitive to price changes. Drivers in these states don’t travel as far on a weekly basis, and cars on the road in these states are more fuel efficient. Note that these residents don’t necessarily have the lowest weekly gas expenditures — a few of these states have some of the nation’s highest prices — but their costs rise the least when prices rise.
How we measured gas price sensitivity
Estimating state-level gas consumption involves the following:
- Distance. We use road-usage data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration to estimate the distance travelled by residents. We later use these figures along with average fuel efficiency to determine overall gas consumption. Because fuel efficiency is measured in terms of average fuel consumption in two ways— freeflowing highway conditions as well as in stop-and-go city driving — we categorized the mileage on various road types (e.g. freeways, local roads) as predominantly highway miles or city miles.
- Fuel efficiency. We estimate average fuel efficiency using the EPA’s miles-per-gallon rating and a database of the five most popular new cars sold in each state, as tracked by data company Experian. We use data from model years 2016, 2019 and 2025 to account for changing preferences and the mix of older and newer vehicles on the road. In this analysis, the average fuel efficiency of those 15 vehicles represents the fuel efficiency of all vehicles in that state. Electric vehicles present a challenge. These drivers travel without buying gas, which raises the average fuel efficiency of all vehicles on the road. However, because this analysis uses only 15 vehicles to represent hundreds of models on the road, including EVs overstates average efficiency far more than excluding them understates it. As a result, we exclude them.
- Total consumption. To calculate the approximate number of gallons purchased per driver, we divide the distance traveled by the average miles per gallon. To reach a per-driver figure, we use the Department of Transportation’s database of licensed drivers, vehicle registrations and resident population.
- Change in gas expenditures. For this analysis, we measured how a fixed change in gas prices in all 50 states would affect total spending on gas. In reality, price changes vary by state, as seen in our analysis of price changes in the first half of 2026.
- Results. The output of the analysis is a dollar amount that represents the change in weekly gas costs per licensed driver in each state if prices rose 10 cents per gallon. The states with higher jumps in the results are places where drivers are likely to experience more pain at the pump due to the combination of prices, fuel efficiency and distance traveled.
These dollar amounts are directional indicators, useful for comparing conditions across states, but they aren’t precise calculations of actual spending per driver.
For example, the roadway usage statistics don’t distinguish between resident and out-of-state drivers or personal and commercial vehicles on the road. While these figures aren’t the precise number of miles residents drove, they give a reasonable estimate about the states where residents likely put on the most mileage.
Conditions also vary within individual states. For example, Floridians in the panhandle pay prices that resemble prices in neighboring Alabama. Elsewhere in Florida, such as Miami, gas prices might be a dollar higher.
Finally, these results are explanatory rather than predictive. They show existing patterns, but they don’t suggest what an individual driver is likely to pay.
Driver takeaways
Drivers can’t readily avoid the gas prices where they live, but they also aren’t bound to state consumption averages. Ultimately, personal consumption drives each person’s price sensitivity. Where they live plays a smaller role.
A driver in Wyoming who drives a fuel-efficient sedan and has a short commute may see a smaller uptick in gas spending than drivers in other states, even those that are the most immune to price increases, on average.
Conversely, a driver in California with a pickup truck and a long commute will not avoid a big jump in gas spending when prices rise, even though they live in a state where drivers, on average, consume less relative to other states.
Rising gas prices can hurt anyone’s wallet. It’s something to keep in mind when choosing where to live, where to work and when buying your next vehicle. Opportunities to change those don’t occur frequently, however. In the meantime, you can curb spending in other, smaller ways, like batching your errands or choosing to stay closer to home. Price sensitivity works in both directions: a person who cuts 20 miles out of a usual monthly mileage average of 200 will save around 10% on gas spending.
Methodology
Fuel consumption by state is based in part on the composition of vehicles in each state and the fuel efficiency of those vehicles. The top five new cars in each state across a 10-year period were used to calculate average mileage per gallon on both city and highway miles. Data about the most popular new cars in each state in 2016, 2019 and 2025 was provided by Experian. This doesn't allow for the total variety of vehicles in each state, but provides a defensible snapshot of vehicle preferences across states and is therefore useful on a relative basis.To determine each vehicle’s fuel efficiency, we used ratings found in the fuel economy guides published by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Fuel consumption by state is based in part on average miles driven per driver. For miles traveled by state, we calculated miles driven on highway or city roadways based on 2024 data from the Federal Highway Administration’s Annual vehicle-miles of travel, 1980 - 2024, by functional system — national summary. Usage statistics include miles driven by out-of-state drivers, commercial drivers, etc., but provides a defensible snapshot of usage on a relative basis. The number of drivers per state was calculated using the Department of Transportation’s database of licensed drivers, vehicle registrations and resident population. The most recent year in this database is 2023.
Gas prices are based on data from AAA. Prices for each state were recorded in the middle of each week, from February 10 through June 24.
