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Weekly mortgage rates stayed largely flat, breaking a six-week streak of increases. Rates remain stubbornly elevated compared to where they were at the beginning of 2026. On a day-to-day basis, the average 30-year rate has been flirting with 6.5% APR. If it does reach that threshold, it will be for the first time since September 2025.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped one basis point to 6.37% APR in the week ending April 3, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Don’t count on the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing rates any time soon. Analysts are nearly unanimous in their prediction that central bankers will vote to keep the federal funds rate steady at their April 28-29 meeting, as economists are only just beginning to get their hands on data that clarifies the impact of the Iran war on the economy.
Fed is unlikely to worry about employment
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report this morning, showing employment gains of 178,000 — far stronger than both February (-92,000) and January (+126,000). Despite ups and downs with hiring, the unemployment rate has remained fairly stable in 2026 so far.
“Today’s increase is significant, but it doesn’t mean the labor market is back on track or growing robustly,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist. “The gains are highly concentrated in a few industries, not broad-based across the economy.”
These growing industries were healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing.
If the war drags on, future jobs reports could be a lot more grim, Renter says. For right now, however, all we have is the data in front of us. As it stands, central bankers are unlikely to see the current job market as a major threat to the economy. Inflation may be the Fed’s chief concern at the moment.
Two key inflation reports — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) — are scheduled for release next week. The war in Iran has put upward pressure on oil prices, which could cause inflation to rise.
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What this means for mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, but it can influence their direction. If data shows that inflation is on an upward trajectory, the Fed is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate. In fact, the majority of analysts are now predicting that the Fed won’t touch rates at all for the rest of the year, though that forecast could change.
Without action from the Fed, we can expect that mortgage rates will probably stay elevated for as long as oil prices remain volatile.
While rates could rise this month, borrowers do have some things within their control. A strong credit score and a minimal amount of debt will help home shoppers qualify for the best available mortgage rates now, and will position homeowners to apply for a refinance when rates eventually drop.
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