Mortgage rates are up, as new data shows annual inflation has reached its highest level since 2023.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose six basis points to 6.43% APR in the week ending June 11, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) We calculate our weekly average using daily APRs recorded over the past five business days.
This week’s mortgage rates put average rates up nearly 30 basis points since April, and more than 50 basis points since February.
🤓 Kate on Rates: June 11, 2026
A Fed cut? In this economy?
On June 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation. The report showed that inflation rose 0.5% in May, bringing the annual inflation rate to 4.2% — the highest reading in three years.
While the Federal Reserve typically pays closer attention to inflation data that strips out food and fuel (since these are usually more volatile than other goods, even under normal circumstances), those areas are currently among the most painful for the everyday consumer’s wallet.
As inflation strays further from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, recent employment data also shows a surprisingly resilient labor market. Taken together, this data means the odds of a rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, led by Kevin Warsh, are virtually nil.
“Under new Fed Chair Warsh, the committee will be sussing out whether what we’re seeing in the [inflation] data represents something that will work itself out in time or whether it risks being persistent," says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist.
“Paired with the labor market data from last week, we know a rate cut is all but off the table.”
Futures traders are now predicting that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points before the end of the year. While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, the federal funds rate — which is how central bankers control monetary policy — usually moves the needle.
When the federal funds rate goes up, lenders must pay more to borrow from each other to fund mortgages. Consequently, borrowers get charged higher mortgage rates to cover these increased costs of doing business.
That means prospective home buyers are getting hit on two fronts: Rising mortgage rates make monthly housing payments more costly, and inflation eats into their ability to save for down payments as everyday bills balloon.
While May’s inflation increase of 0.5% is slightly lower than April’s 0.6% increase, these are compounding expenses.
“With wage growth lagging behind price growth, household budgets are under increasing pressure,” Renter says.
“After sharp growth in April, a modest deceleration in the growth of grocery prices doesn’t translate to actual relief in May,” Renter explains. "Consumers are paying more for essentials and they can feel powerless to mitigate this pain.”
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And yet, home buyers persisted
The good news is that even in the face of these mounting financial pressures, people are still buying homes. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 4.17 million existing homes were sold in May, despite inventory falling slightly year-over-year. This was up from April’s total existing home sales of 4.02 million.
“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a press release. “This is great news for the housing market and the economy.”
The median sales price for these homes was $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year.
And according to the NAR’s Housing Affordability Index, affordability conditions actually improved in all regions last month. The West saw the biggest bump in affordability, with the median sale price for existing homes down 0.7% from last May to $625,900.
Happily, first-time buyers also seem to be getting a bit more of a foothold. Their first-time home purchases accounted for 35% of existing home sales in May, compared to 33% in April and 30% in May 2025.
Oh yeah … we’re still at war
As we move halfway into June, it also seems increasingly likely that the Iran war is going to officially drag into summer, meaning that elevated mortgage rates are probably here to stay for now.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged new attacks this week, with President Trump promising to “hit them hard again” after voicing his dissatisfaction with Iran’s progress in peace negotiations.
The war has had a tangible effect on the economy, driving up fuel prices — which in turn has caused inflation to rise, pushing mortgage rates up.
In an interview set to air on June 14, Vice President JD Vance told CBS’s “Sunday Morning” that a deal with Iran could “absolutely” come before the midterm elections, which are in November.
Given this uncertain timeline, the relevant question now seems less like “When will rates come down?” and more like “Will rates rise above 6.5% or even 7% in 2026?”
While things aren’t that dire yet, it feels like a timely question to consider — it’s been over a year since we saw average daily rates that started with a seven.
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