Yes, mortgage rates inched lower for a second straight week. No, don’t get too excited.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell four basis points to 6.59% APR in the week ending Aug. 13, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) We calculate our weekly average using daily APRs recorded over the past five business days.
Honestly, you’ll barely feel four basis points in your monthly mortgage payment — and today’s mortgage rates aren’t exactly low. But after a volatile July, we’ll take any stability we can get.
Inflation cooled a bit in July
This week’s Consumer Price Index report helped steady mortgage rates. Annual inflation eased slightly to 3.4% in July, down from 3.5% in June. That’s not much of a cooldown, but the numbers landed right where markets expected — and markets don’t like surprises.
Think of it this way: Inflation went from a gentle boil to a simmer. Cooler, sure, but the water’s still hot. Right now, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. (The Fed measures its target using a different inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.)
“Inflation has been slowing since April; the question is whether it will continue to slow enough to reach the Fed’s inflation goal without any assistance from higher interest rates,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist.
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions influence the direction they tend to go. This week’s inflation report gives the Fed a little more breathing room before its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Right now, the odds are about 60-40 that the Fed leaves its benchmark rate alone rather than raises it, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Mortgage shoppers would much rather see the Fed hold rates steady than raise them again. Though a hold wouldn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates, a hike could add to borrowing costs.
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Last month’s wild cards haven’t left the table
On the other hand, we don’t have to look back far to see how quickly the outlook can change.
Last month, renewed conflict in Iran sent oil prices climbing. By the end of July, the average 30-year fixed rate had spiked to 6.66% — its highest in a year, according to Freddie Mac.
August has brought some relief, as fighting subsided and oil prices retreated. Then came another surprise: The July jobs report was much weaker than economists expected, which helped pull mortgage rates down further.
For now, mortgage rates are still being tugged in both directions. Inflation and energy prices can push them up, while a slowing economy can pull them down.
For home buyers, boring is good
“Boring” gets a bad rap, but sometimes it’s exactly what you want: at the dentist, on a flight, or when budgeting for a mortgage. If you’re shopping for a home, these recent steady weeks make it easier to figure out how much house you can afford — and trust that number for more than a few days.
With the conflict in Iran unresolved and more economic data ahead, don't expect a quiet fall or put your home search on hold waiting for the perfect rate. Focus on what you can afford today, compare offers from multiple lenders and be ready to lock when the numbers work for your budget.
Rates could keep drifting lower, or the next surprise could send them back up. Either way, your homebuying plan shouldn’t depend on guessing which comes next.
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