Updated on June 5.
What NerdWallet's economist is watching in the week ahead
Here’s what NerdWallet’s senior economist Elizabeth Renter will be watching for in economic news and data this week.
My look-ahead for the week of March 23 was when I last mentioned “stagflation.” That’s looking less and less like the most pressing risk in the balance between inflation and the labor market.
This week’s labor market data pointed not only to a potential end to the cooling, but perhaps even a bit of a thaw. The growth shown in the ADP and BLS releases was broadbased, something we haven’t seen much of. And with three months of robust growth in total employment, it’s certainly beginning to look like a trend.
Next week, we’ll see how the other side is shaking out when we get inflation data for the month of May. Inflation spiked in March and has remained high, largely due to increased energy costs tied to the war in Iran. However, core consumer inflation — stripping out volatile food and energy prices — continues to rise too, so we can’t say the impact is solely an oil price shock. Further, core wholesale inflation has climbed, suggesting more is on the way.
The FOMC will be convening the week after next, and next week’s data will set the stage for that meeting. Through the lens of the dual mandate, inflation seems the bigger risk at this time, and the case for a rate hike stronger than a cut. It isn’t clear if that case will be strong enough in two week’s time, but given the turbulence surrounding the Fed over the past year, all eyes will be on how this latest data is handled under our new Fed Chair.
Upcoming data releases:
- Mon., June 8: Survey of Consumer Expectations, NY Fed - There’s always a lot to look at in this sentiment survey. My eyes will be on inflation expectations, household financial situations and the expectation of missing a debt payment.
- Tues., June 9: Small Business Optimism Index, NFIB - I’m particularly interested in how the ongoing war continues to impact small businesses, both those dependent on oil and fuel and those merely impacted by the uncertainty of such conflict.
- Wed., June 10: Consumer Price Index (consumer inflation), BLS - Inflation has jumped considerably since the beginning of March. I’m unsure if we’ll see additional acceleration this month, but I’m fairly certain we won’t see real relief.
- Thurs., June 11: Producer Price Index (wholesale inflation), BLS - A look at what’s potentially coming down the pike, from producers to consumers, there’s little doubt we’ll see ongoing pressure from higher oil prices.
- Fri., June 12: Consumer sentiment, U Mich. - War has been pushing low sentiment into the dirt, and with resolution unclear, it will continue to color how people are feeling about the economy. Not to mention the real effects of higher and higher prices.
Publishing next week from the NerdWallet studies team:
- Tues., June 9: Analysis - Commuters (and Cars) On the Road Increase, As Prices Spike - This look at commuting and car ownership costs data underscores just how many people are being affected by higher and higher gas prices. Also, how the number of cars on the road have changed under RTO mandates. Contact [email protected] if you’d like to receive it under embargo or at publication.
What’s going on with tariffs?
Since entering office, President Donald Trump has tried to enact sweeping tariffs affecting virtually all U.S. trade partners.
Those tariffs have been repeatedly struck down in court, including a Supreme Court ruling that ruled all of Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs illegal. The administration’s latest set of proposed tariffs could go into effect in July 2026.
We’ll continue tracking the latest tariff news here.
The U.S. economy is holding steady but facing some pressures. The economy is expanding again after a dip in Q1 2025, but Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 growth was lower than anticipated. The labor market is adding jobs, but long-term unemployment is growing, and inflation is below its peak but stubborn. The Federal Reserve looks at several economic indicators — along with the stock market — to form a better picture of the economy and make decisions on interest rates.
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On this page
- What NerdWallet's economist is watching in the week ahead
- What’s going on with tariffs?
- Is the U.S. in a recession?
- Is the U.S. economy growing?
- What is the U.S. unemployment rate?
- How fast are wages growing?
- Is inflation going down?
- What’s happening with gas prices?
- How much is the U.S. dollar worth now?
- What is the current U.S. trade deficit?
- How much does the U.S. import and export?
- Rent inflation
- When will interest rates go down?
- Consumer confidence in the economy
- How’s the stock market doing?
- Latest mortgage interest rates
Is the U.S. in a recession?
The United States is not currently in a recession, but the impacts of new tariffs and a looming trade war have unsettled financial markets and raised fears of an economic downturn. Even President Donald Trump has said a recession is possible. For ongoing updates on recession news, see: Are we in a recession?
Is the U.S. economy growing?
Q1 2026 GDP: +1.6%
The U.S. economy has shown steady growth since it dropped to unprecedented levels during the second quarter of 2020 due to the pandemic — and then rebounded almost as quickly. A year later, in the second quarter of 2021, the rate of annual growth hit a high not seen since the 1950s.
But in the first quarter of 2025, growth declined for the first time in nearly three years, primarily due to an increase in imports — a result of businesses stocking up on goods before tariffs began. The economy rebounded strongly in the second and third quarters, before slowing in the final quarter of 2025 and rebounding slightly in the first quarter of 2026.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value — in current dollars — of all goods and services produced within the United States in a given period. The data that shows GDP adjusted for inflation is called Real GDP. All GDP changes are expressed on an annualized basis and reports are released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Why it matters: GDP is a barometer for the health of the country. When it’s growing, that’s a good sign: consumers are spending, businesses are producing and jobs are being created. But when the GDP shrinks, or contracts, it signals that the economy may be slowing. If it contracts for two quarters, that can be considered a recession.
» MORE: GDP Report
What is the U.S. unemployment rate?
May unemployment rate: 4.3%
The U.S. unemployment rate is the share of unemployed people as a percentage of the overall labor force. Unemployed people are those who are actively seeking work. The labor force doesn’t include the entire population; it’s just the number of people who are employed plus those who are unemployed but looking for jobs.
The unemployment rate has topped 4% since May 2024.
Why it matters: Unemployment shows how the labor market is doing. When it’s low, people are finding work and feeling confident about job-hopping. When the rate is elevated, it shows the economy could be struggling, with fewer positions available for jobseekers.
How fast are wages growing?
April wage growth rate: 3.6%
Wage growth is moderating from what it was at this time in 2024 and is much lower than its peak in 2022. Still, the most recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that annual growth is pacing much faster than it did in 2020.
Why it matters: Wage growth shows how workers are doing. If wages are rising, it means the job market is strong and employers are competing for workers. But when inflation rises faster than wages, then raises won’t stretch as far and consumers lose purchasing power.
Below is the three-month moving average of median hourly wages over the last decade.
Is inflation going down?
Inflation measures the rate of price increases, on an annual basis. The Federal Reserve is targeting a 2% inflation rate.
Why it matters: The Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate. Inflation reports like the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index show how fast prices are rising. When inflation rates spike and wages don’t increase as strongly, it means it could be harder for households to stay afloat.
Consumer price index (CPI)
April CPI index: 3.8%
April core CPI index: 2.8%
The current inflation rate typically reflects the consumer price index (CPI), released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI measures changes in prices that consumers pay for goods and services including food, gas and rent. The core measure of the consumer price index excludes two volatile factors: food and energy.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index
April PCE inflation rate: 3.8%
April core PCE rate: 3.3%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is the core personal consumption expenditure (core PCE) index, which is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PCE follows the goods and services consumers buy and the price they pay for them. It also tracks changes in spending habits as prices fluctuate.
» MORE: What is the PCE?
What’s happening with gas prices?
Commodity oil prices are spiking after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran escalated into a broader war earlier this year. As a result, U.S. drivers have been seeing fast-rising gas prices. That price squeeze could soon intensify as oil and gas supplies run low amid ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: High gas prices mean consumers have less money available for other spending, which can slow the economy. Higher fuel prices also increase costs for businesses that rely on shipping, which can pass higher costs to consumers and fuel inflation.
» MORE: Gas prices in the U.S.
Here’s a snapshot of average U.S. gas prices right now.
How much is the U.S. dollar worth now?
The dollar index measures how the dollar compares to other currencies. The U.S. dollar is usually considered a safe haven, especially during times of market volatility and economic uncertainty. But in 2025, the value of the dollar is falling as investors sell off U.S. assets, largely due to uncertainty tied to Trump’s protectionist policies and broad sweeping tariffs.
Why it matters: The strength of the U.S. dollar shows its global demand. A strong dollar makes imported goods and services cheaper for U.S. consumers and businesses. It also eases inflationary pressure in the U.S. But a strong dollar could reduce demand for imports from U.S. businesses, which could slow growth.
What is the current U.S. trade deficit?
U.S. trade deficit in March 2026: $60.3 billion — up 4.4% from February 2026.
The U.S. has run a trade deficit for decades, but it has generally decreased since tariffs went into effect.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
» MORE: What is the U.S. trade deficit?
How much does the U.S. import and export?
Imports are goods that one country purchases from another country, while exports are goods that one country sells to another country. The latest U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows:
Exports in March 2026: $320.9 billion — up 2.0% from February 2026.
Imports in March 2026: $381.2 billion — up 2.3% from February 2026.
Rent inflation
Rent costs are a significant factor driving inflation. That’s because rent is included within the shelter price index and shelter comprises the biggest segment of the CPI. The rent portion of the CPI has outpaced overall inflation for decades.
However, there’s a lag in how rent data is reflected in the CPI, which means rental shifts — up or down — won’t immediately be reflected in the report. The lag is due to the cycle of lease renewals. Companies that track rental prices, like the housing website Zillow, show that rent increases have slowed down for nearly a year, but that slowdown has yet to show up in the CPI report.
Why it matters: When rent rises faster than wage growth, it increases living costs, which means households have less money available for other expenses. High prices also shrink the affordable options available in the rental market.
» MORE: Rental market trends in the U.S.
When will interest rates go down?
Federal funds rate: 3.50 to 3.75%
The federal funds rate, also known as the Fed rate, is the interest rate that U.S. banks pay each other to borrow or loan money overnight.
The fed rate is set by the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), which is the monetary policymaking arm of the nation’s central bank known as the Federal Reserve. At the FOMC’s eight scheduled meetings each year, it takes action on the federal funds rate. That means it will hike, hold or lower rates, depending on economic conditions.
After a year of paused interest rates, the Fed made rate cuts at its September, November and December 2024 meetings. The FOMC held rates steady at the majority of its 2025 meetings before making its first cut at its September meeting. A second rate cut followed at its October and December meetings. In 2026, there have been no rate changes.
Why it matters: The federal funds rate affects interest rates on consumer lending products like credit cards and mortgages. When the rate rises, borrowing becomes more expensive. That can lead to tighter lending standards, which means consumers and businesses tend to borrow less.
» MORE: What is the federal funds rate?
Consumer confidence in the economy
Consumer confidence — or sentiment — is an index that reflects people’s perceptions about the economy in the short-term and the outlook for the future. There are two main consumer sentiment indexes: the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment and The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
Why it matters: Consumer sentiment shows how people feel about the economy and economists consider it a useful tool in predicting economic changes. How people feel about the economy can shape their behavior: If consumers are feeling optimistic, they’re more likely to spend money. But if their feelings are negative, they may pull back spending, which can slow economic growth.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment
The final reading for May from the University of Michigan, released on May 22, shows:
- The Index of Consumer Sentiment registered at 44.8, down from 49.8 for April.
- Current Economic Conditions registered at 45.8, down from 52.5 for April.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations registered at 44.1, down from 48.1 for April.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
Conference Board data for May, released on May 26, shows:
- The Consumer Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.7 point for May to 93.1, from 93.8 in April.
- The Present Situation Index fell by 3.2 points to 121.2.
- The Expectations Index rose by 1.0 point to 74.4.
How’s the stock market doing?
The health of the stock market is represented by major stock market indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100. These indexes include broad sections of the stock market, but aren’t entirely exhaustive. That means the performance of these indexes represents the fluctuations in the entire market. So when the stock market goes up that means stock market indexes have gained value and vice versa.
Why it matters: The stock market reflects investor confidence in the economy. When stock prices rise, it means investors are feeling optimistic. When prices fall, it signals investors are uncertain or concerned about the economy. These stock fluctuations affect investments, retirement accounts, consumer confidence and business decisions.
» MORE: S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Data may be delayed and is for informational purposes only.
Latest mortgage interest rates
Mortgage rates change daily according to what’s happening in the economy.
NerdWallet’s daily mortgage rates below are calculated as an average of the annual percentage rate (APR) with the lowest points from a selection of major national mortgage lenders. The APR is based on the interest rate and indicates all of the costs of getting a loan including mortgage origination fees and discount points.
Why it matters: Mortgage rates affect housing affordability. When rates go up, so do monthly payments for buyers, which could make it harder to afford homes. For current homeowners, high rates may discourage them from selling, which can tighten the housing market and drive up home prices.
» MORE: Current mortgage interest rates
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
