New York Fed: Unemployment Concerns Grow

Updated on Nov. 9.

Consumer sentiment continues to fall amid uncertainty over the war in Iran and rising gas prices.

University of Michigan: Sentiment ticks up in November

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose about 6% in the preliminary November reading, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers released on Nov. 6.

The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 51.0 from 46.7 in October. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose from 48.8 in October to 50.9 in November.

The rise in overall sentiment was driven by improvement in expectations for personal finances and business conditions. Gains were concentrated among independent households. While sentiment increased among lower- and middle-wealth households, it fell 5% among those with the largest stock portfolios amid recent stock market volatility.

Despite the improvement in November, sentiment remains down 10% from February.

Consumers continued to express concerns about affordability, with about 57% saying that high prices had eroded their living standards, up from 46% in February and the highest share since May.

“AI worries, however, were dwarfed by cost of living concerns, which continue to be at the forefront of consumers’ minds across the population,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a release.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% in November from 4.7% in October but remained above the 3.4% recorded in February before the Iran conflict began. Long-run inflation expectations ticked down to 3.4% in November from 3.5% in October.

Conference Board: Confidence is up in October

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, up from a revised 84.2 in September. The survey period ran Oct. 1–21.

The bump in consumer confidence was primarily due to improved views of business conditions, according to the release. “The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October,” said Fergus McCormick, senior economist at The Conference Board, in a release. “Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years

The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, reflecting improved views of current business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index increased 6.9 points to 72.6, partially reversing three monthly declines in a row.

Here are some other key findings from the report:

Spending plans: Expected spending on services and durable goods generally declined over the next six months.

Current business conditions: Consumers’ views improved, with 21.4% saying conditions were good, up from 18.8% in September.

Labor market: Perceptions improved, with 26.7% of consumers saying jobs were plentiful, up from 24.3% in September.

Prices: Consumers continued to express concerns about rising costs, particularly food, groceries, oil and diesel prices.

Inflation expectations: Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.8% but still remained elevated.

New York Fed: Unemployment concerns reach highest level since 2020

The New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on Nov. 9, shows consumers’ inflation expectations remained unchanged, while concerns about unemployment rose. The share expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now rose to 45.3% — the highest reading since April 2020. Expectations for job losses also went up slightly, though job-finding expectations improved to their highest level since November 2025.

Household income and spending growth expectations remained broadly stable. However, concerns about missing debt payments rose to 13.8% — the highest level since December 2025. Perceptions of households’ current financial situations improved slightly, while expectations for their future financial situations were largely unchanged.

The survey was conducted Oct. 1 through Oct. 31, 2026.

More findings below.

What is consumer sentiment?

Consumer sentiment, also known as consumer confidence, is an index of how U.S. consumers are feeling about the current and future state of the economy, and all that folds into the economy: the job market, wages, business conditions and their personal finances. It’s a valuable tool for economists, as consumer sentiment can be used as an early predictor of economic changes.

How people feel about the economy can directly impact the economy, because consumers' attitudes often affect how much they spend on things like food, transportation, household goods, entertainment and more.

In 2023, consumers’ personal spending made up 67.9% of the U.S. GDP, or gross domestic product, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That’s a significant majority of the nation’s GDP, so keeping a close eye on consumer sentiment is key in foreseeing potential economic slumps or rallies.

When the economy is in a recession, consumer sentiment falls. On the flip side, when the economy is expanding, consumer sentiment rises. The index does typically peak before a recession, though.

Unlike other indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), consumer sentiment isn’t calculated using spending data or hard figures. Instead, economists rely on two major surveys of consumer confidence: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

Each survey collects the general attitudes and opinions of hundreds of U.S. consumers. Then, those opinions are assigned numeric values and aggregated into one number, or index.

What is consumer sentiment like right now?

Preliminary results for November from the University of Michigan, released on Nov. 6 show:

The Index of Consumer Sentiment registered at 51.0, up from 48.0 in October.
Current Economic Conditions registered at 51.0, up from 46.7 in October.
The Index of Consumer Expectations registered at 50.9, up from 48.8 in October.

How the University of Michigan creates its index

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is one of three indexes derived from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which started in 1946. Originally conducted annually, the surveys switched to a monthly cadence in 1978. The surveys have a sample size of roughly 600 people selected randomly from the 48 adjoining U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

The surveys include roughly 50 questions covering personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. From those surveyed, three indexes are produced: the Index of Consumer Sentiment, the Index of Consumer Expectations and the Index of Current Economic Conditions.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is the most commonly cited index of the bunch. It’s derived from these five questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now, looking ahead: Do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole. Do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

Historically, the surveys have been conducted by phone. Starting in July 2024, they'll be conducted online, with researchers aiming for 900 to 1,000 respondents.

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index

Conference Board data for October, released on Oct. 27, shows:

The Consumer Confidence Index rose by 7.5 points to 97.7.
The Present Situation Index rose by 8.6 points to 120.4.
The Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6.

How the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index comes together

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey was launched in 1967 as a mail survey conducted every other month. Today, the survey is conducted online, on a monthly basis, with a sample size of roughly 3,000 respondents.

The Conference Board issues a five-question survey to calculate three distinct indexes: the Consumer Confidence Index, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index. Once the surveys have been completed, each question is given a relative value. Then, those values are compared against their relative values from 1985 — the survey’s benchmark year, with an index set at 100.

The Consumer Confidence Index is the average index for all five questions. The Present Situation Index is calculated using the average indexes for the first two questions, and the remaining three questions determine the Expectations Index.

Present Situation Index

Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions.
Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions.

Expectations Index

Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.

Consumer Confidence Index

This is the average index for all five questions above.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations

Some highlights from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on Nov. 9:

Inflation. One-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.9%, while three-year expectations held at 3.3%. Five-year expectations were also unchanged at 3%.
Prices. Consumers expect gas prices to rise 4.2% over the next year, down 0.6 percentage point. Expectations for food prices held at 5.5%, while expectations increased for medical care, college tuition and rent, with rent rising 0.9 percentage point to 7.7%
Jobs. Concerns about the labor market increased. The perceived probability that unemployment will be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020. However, people became more confident they could find a job if they lost their current one, with that probability increasing to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025.
Job loss and quitting. Consumers became slightly more worried about losing their jobs, with the perceived probability rising to 13.9%. Expectations for voluntarily leaving a job declined to 19.4%.
Household spending. Expected household spending growth decreased 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 5%. Income growth expectations edged down to 3%.
Credit and debt. Perceptions of credit access and expectations for future credit availability were largely unchanged. However, the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest reading since December 2025.
Financial situation. Consumers reported a slight improvement in their current financial situations, with more households saying their finances had improved over the past year. Expectations for their financial situation a year from now were roughly unchanged. The perceived probability of U.S. stock prices rising over the next 12 months edged down to 40%.

How the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts its survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations focuses on expectations about economic outcomes.

The survey, which is conducted by NielsenIQ, launched in 2013. It’s an internet-based survey that asks a rotating panel of 1,300 heads-of-household about their expectations of the economy, as well as their own personal finances related to the following categories:

Inflation:

Inflation expectations.
Inflation uncertainty.
Probability of different inflation outcomes.
Home price change expectations.
Home price change uncertainty.
Commodity price change expectations.

Labor market:

Earnings growth expectations.
Earnings growth uncertainty.
Job separation expectations.
Job finding expectations.
Moving expectations.
Expectations of higher unemployment.

Household finance:

Household income growth expectations. Household spending growth expectations. Change in taxes. Change in credit availability. Debt delinquency expectations. Expectations of higher interest rate on savings accounts. Household financial situation.Expectations of higher stock prices. Government debt growth expectations.

» MORE: Current rate of inflation and why it matters