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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Rates hold at 6.63% but remain above last month's average as war and Fed uncertainty keep pressure on.

Taylor Getler
Johanna Arnone
Updated
Mortgage rates are running higher than last month, even as this week's numbers leveled off. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell three basis points to 6.63% APR for the week ending August 6, according to Zillow data provided to NerdWallet — but that's still 13 basis points above July's monthly average of 6.50%. Rates climbed steadily throughout July, largely tracking the back-and-forth of the war in Iran.
Next week brings the Consumer Price Index, which will give us our first real look at how July's resumed fighting in Iran affected inflation. Analysts will be reading that data alongside Friday's jobs report — if unemployment is rising but inflation isn't as bad as feared, the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September could ease, and mortgage rates might dip. But if inflation comes in hot, expect rates to climb again.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: July 30, 2026

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August mortgage rates forecast

The outlook for August rates isn't great for buyers hoping for relief. Renewed fighting in Iran is the biggest wildcard — rates have been moving in lockstep with Middle East news since the war began, and with no clear resolution in sight, that's unlikely to change.
On top of that, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation and preference for fewer public communications has left markets unsettled. Bond yields actually rose during Warsh's press conference as markets grew skeptical that inflation would be addressed decisively. Whether the Fed eventually acts or stays put, both scenarios could push mortgage rates higher.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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