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Companies are lining up for tariff refunds. What about the rest of us?
When the Supreme Court ruled this month that most of President Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs are unconstitutional, it left one big question on the table.
What happens to the billions of dollars collected under tariffs that have now been deemed illegal?
U.S. companies aren’t waiting around for a definitive answer. More than 1,000 of them have already filed requests for refunds (most of them before the ruling came down), including FedEx, Costco, Revlon, Kawasaki, Prada, Staples and Goodyear Tire & Rubber.
Trump has said tariffs are “paid for by foreign countries,” which he repeated in this week’s State of the Union address. Researchers for the New York Fed estimate that 96% of the cost burden of tariffs falls on U.S. companies and consumers.
Ultimately, while companies have absorbed some of those costs, much of the burden is passed down to consumers in the form of higher prices. Estimates vary, but the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has said that tariffs overall cost American households an average of $1,000 in 2025.
Who is eligible for a tariff refund?
U.S. companies that import foreign-made goods or materials, or manufacture goods overseas for distribution in the United States, pay tariffs directly. As such, they have the legal standing to sue to recoup those levies that were collected illegally.
The requests will be handled by the U.S. Court of International Trade. It is not yet clear how the court will handle the process.
Since the decision, White House officials have signaled that a ruling on refunds could be a long and painful process. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday on CNN that the issue could take “weeks or months” to play out in courts. Trump said on Friday that the process could take years.
How much money is at stake?
The court’s decision specifically called out tariffs enacted by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, ruling that the act does not give the president authority to levy tariffs. Tariffs enacted under different mechanisms are not affected.
The United States has collected a bit more than $133 billion in tariffs under IEEPA since last spring, according to figures published by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Will consumers see any of that money?
Because consumers pay for tariffs indirectly, through higher prices, they do not have legal standing to sue for refunds.
That hasn’t stopped some prominent Democrats, in the wake of Friday’s decision, to call for refund checks to be paid directly to consumers.
Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of dividend checks of as much as $2,000 “to our middle-income people and lower-income people” to be paid from tariff revenue, but offered no detailed proposal — and that was before Friday’s Supreme Court decision. Any such action would likely require congressional approval.
In reality, there’s no clear mechanism for refunding consumers if companies — who do have legal standing — are first in line for any tariff-related refunds.
Nerdy tip: When the president first began discussing potential tariff dividend checks, it led to a wave of scam emails and other communications from fraudsters urging users to “act now” to sign up for their check. News in the past week could lead to a resurgence. First rule: Do not click any link related to tariff checks of any kind.
Also in the Feb. 27 edition of MoneyNerd:
- Financial lessons from “The Traitors" TV show (strategy is everything).
- “I should have bought Punch’s Ikea monkey when I had the chance” (a writer’s lament).
- Consumer tech: Samsung’s Galaxy S26 gets pricier. (Is there more to come?)
- Money tips (and more!)
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Your MoneyNerd team: Courtney Neidel, Anna Helhoski, Rick VanderKnyff.
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