After climbing all week, mortgage rates eased today — though in a high rate environment, it’s not much of a drop.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 7.41% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is three basis points lower than yesterday but 27 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Meanwhile this morning, we got fresh jobs data for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employers added fewer jobs than expected and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, signaling weakness in the labor market. Coupled with softer than expected inflation data in August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index, it’s looking less likely that the Federal Reserve will hike its benchmark rate in October.
“The data was also enough to slow the bond market's roll, at least for a moment, so we'll likely see slightly softer mortgage rates,” says Kate Wood, lending expert at NerdWallet. “But think dip, not dive — and mortgage rates have already risen so much this week that honestly it's unlikely to even be that much of a dip.”
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: October 1, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Lately, mortgage rates have remained steadily above 7% as inflation puts upward pressure on financial markets. Mortgage interest rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — essentially, the return investors demand for lending money to the U.S. government. This week, that yield hit its highest level since 2002.
The larger forces spooking the bond market, like U.S. government borrowing and big tech’s spending spree on AI and data centers, aren’t going away anytime soon. Meanwhile, the war in Iran continues to strain global oil supplies, keeping inflation pressure — and mortgage rates — high.
In an effort to tame inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but financial markets watch closely for clues about its next move. But the Fed doesn’t focus on inflation alone. The central bankers must balance its efforts to cool price growth with keeping the labor market strong and healthy.
The Fed’s prescription is usually rate hikes to fight inflation, or rate cuts to stimulate employment. Right now, those forces are at odds. Since inflation is still high and September’s jobs data came in weaker than expected, the Fed will likely keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting. Public comments from Fed officials next week could signal what the central bankers are thinking.
For mortgage borrowers, expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady could bring a little short-term relief. But don’t expect a dramatic drop: The larger forces pushing up long-term borrowing costs aren’t likely to ease soon. If you’re shopping now, build your budget around today’s higher rates — and treat any dip as a welcome bonus, not a guarantee.
And if you’ve been hoping to refinance … well, patience is a virtue. 😬
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🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.91% or higher — but there aren't too many folks for whom that's true.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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