Gas Prices Fall With Start of Fall
Pump prices are dropping this fall, as usual.
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Updated on Oct. 1.
The average regular gas price in the U.S. as of Oct. 1 is $3.160 per gallon, according to AAA, down from $3.204 a year ago and down from $3.190 last month.
Entering fall, gas prices have begun dropping after holding steady for much of the summer.
Nationally, gas prices tend to go down in autumn following the end of the summer travel season.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects a 11% decline from August to December this year; it expects that continued oil supply growth will lead to falling crude oil prices. Refiners will also begin transitioning to a winter blend, which are cheaper and so supply costs will fall.
As of Sept. 22, gas prices are below $3 in 22 states.
Are oil prices going up?
Pump prices have been stable this summer, especially compared to recent years, thanks to oil prices that had moderated at around $65 a barrel after spiking briefly in June in response to the Israel-Iran conflict.
Gas price inflation, explained
It wasn’t that long ago that gas prices were soaring: Prices surged in 2021 and 2022, largely due to two economic disruptions: pandemic-related supply shocks and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The combination of the two hit energy markets hard and prices never recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Here’s what happened:
In 2019, before the pandemic, the average per-gallon price of regular gas was $2.601, according to EIA data.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the national average increased before peaking at $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022, according to AAA.
Since then, gas prices have retreated, but they haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. Today, gas prices are about 9% higher than they were six years ago.
Why gas prices remain higher than they used to be
At this time of year, seasonal factors play a considerable role in raising gas prices. A scheduled switch to summer-blend gasoline temporarily elevates prices through the warm months. Inflation, supply-chain disruptions and gas tax hikes can factor into higher prices, as well. But in the end, elevated oil prices are the main culprit.
The cost of oil typically represents more than half of the cost of a gallon of gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). So, a major reason gas prices have remained so high is that, until recently, oil prices were higher than they were before the pandemic hit in 2020 and Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. That’s based on the average monthly price of West Texas Intermediate crude, which is used as the benchmark for oil prices in North America.
Keep in mind that gas prices at the pump rarely reflect that day’s market conditions. Instead, they represent costs incurred weeks, even months before. That lag makes prices slower to rise and fall than news headlines might suggest. And while spot shortages, refinery production shortages or blending issues can drive up gas prices locally, big nationwide swings in gas prices are almost always due to the price of crude oil.
Between May 1 and Sept. 15, gas refineries switch from winter-blend to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to make. That's one reason gas prices tend to increase in the spring and summer and decrease in the fall and winter. Summer-blend gasoline is formulated to limit emissions during the warmer months when gas can evaporate more easily.
Heading into fall, prices are much lower than a year ago. Here’s how gas prices compare today:
As of Oct. 1, the average regular gas price in the U.S. is $3.160 per gallon, according to AAA, which tracks gas prices.
The price is down from $3.163 per gallon a week ago.
The price is down from $3.190 per gallon a month ago.
A year ago, the price was $3.204 per gallon.
At the moment, price fluctuations are short-term trends happening within the larger picture of elevated gas prices. Oil prices, though still higher than they were before the pandemic, are well below their June 2022 peak of almost $120 per barrel.
Average gas price per state
The average gas price per state varies widely, with the most expensive state typically costing about $2 more per gallon of regular than the least expensive state.
» MORE: Why is diesel so expensive?