Indulge me for a moment in memories of 2007. It was a time when gaucho pants were inexplicably cool, Apple was about to release a brand new iPhone and yes, the yield on the 10YT topped 5%. Except oh god, wait — those things are all true now, too.
Mortgage interest rates are generally benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and yesterday that yield hit its highest level since 2007. So yes, mortgage rates are higher today.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.02% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is five basis points higher than yesterday and 23 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Bond yields have been rising — and pushing up mortgage rates — for a while now. I'll get into why below the chart.
P.S.: The Federal Reserve's September meeting concludes today, with a decision due out at 2 pm E.T. The Fed's widely expected to raise the funds rate 25 basis points. For more on why, check out my column from yesterday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
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🤓 Kate on Rates: September 10, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
I mentioned up top that mortgage rates are frequently benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. That means that as the 10YT changes, mortgage rates do, too. It's not an exact 1:1, though. Mortgage lenders add on a margin above the 10YT yield to account for their costs and the greater risk of mortgages relative to bonds.
Treasury yields have been rising for a while for a bunch of somewhat interrelated reasons. We could go down a lot of rabbit holes here, so I'm just going to summarize a few of the biggest in no particular order.
🎈 Inflation
When money's worth less, bonds are worth less, too. To understand why, we need to talk about how bonds work.
Bonds are essentially tiny loans that investors give to bond issuers. (When you buy a Treasury bond, you're lending money to the U.S. government.) Over the life of the bond, the investor receives regular interest payments and then, when the bond matures, they get their initial investment back.
But bonds aren't always purchased directly or held until maturity. When investors buy bonds from each other, they're buying the bond at today's price, not its issue price.
Here's the thing. Regardless of what an investor paid for the bond, the issuer is still going to make the same interest payments. The ratio of a bond's annual interest payment to its current price is what gives us the yield. When bond prices go down, yields go up — the interest payment is being divided by a smaller number.
When inflation's running hot, bonds are less desirable and demand drops. Bond investors who stick it out aren't going to pay face value for existing bonds, and they're going to want to see higher yields on newly-issued bonds. All told, inflation pushes up bond yields.
🤖 AI and other investment opportunities
Government bonds might be the biggest game in town, but they aren't the only game in town. During an inflationary period some investors are going to ditch bonds entirely for other types of investments. But lately investors are being tempted by corporate bonds, notably those offered by companies that need to raise lots of capital to fund AI development and infrastructure.
From January through July of this year, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle issued approximately $132 billion dollars' worth of bonds, according to global investment group Vanguard. For comparison, in all of 2024, big tech issued roughly $20 billion in bonds. The rise of AI has driven the stock market to new heights this year, but it's also been a major force in the bond market.
This has pushed up Treasury yields for two related reasons. One is simple supply and demand. The other is what all this investment in AI could mean. If AI lives up to its promises of increased productivity, that growth could drive inflation. Strong inflation could force the Federal Reserve to keep the funds rate high. And I just talked about what inflation does to bonds.
🏛️ Government debt anxiety
I mentioned above that when you buy a bond, you're buying a little piece of U.S. government debt. There's a lot of debt to go around — $40 trillion, as of August.
Historically, Treasury bonds have been one of the safest investments one could make. You're lending money to the U.S. government, and the U.S. government is about as trustworthy a borrower as you could ever hope to find.
Lately though, the U.S. has been looking a little less scrupulous. The national debt keeps rising and the government keeps spending. Tax increases or spending cuts, both of which could at least try to make a dent in the U.S.'s massive debt, don't appear to be on the table.
Investors aren't thinking the U.S. is about to default, but America's definitely not being super responsible with its cash, either. So the same way that a mortgage lender's going to offer a higher interest rate to a borrower with shaky finances, investors buying Treasuries are going to demand higher yields to account for that increased risk.
Additionally, more debt means the U.S. issues more Treasuries, so we're right back into basic supply and demand again.
All of the above's been sending bond yields higher, and mortgage rates are going along for the ride.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
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🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.52% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
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