Our daily average fell below 7% this morning, but make no mistake: Mortgage rates remain definitively higher. One look at the week-over-week difference is enough to tell you that.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.97% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 12 basis points lower than yesterday but 23 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
We may be seeing this low because of intraday shifts in the bond market yesterday. Bond yields — including the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates track — change constantly. Many mortgage lenders, on the other hand, update their rates once or twice a day. That means when there's a lot moving the markets, you'll see more variation between lenders' offered rates.
Two big takeaways here. One, just because our average is showing a sub-7% APR today does not mean rates are falling. Besides, it's just barely under seven.
Two, when there's more variation in mortgage lenders' offered rates, comparing multiple lenders is even more critical. You're the same borrower providing the same information, but Lender A might offer you a substantially lower rate than Lender B — and Lender C might be able to beat them both.
What sent mortgage rates so high this week? Keep reading below the chart for the details.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: September 10, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Mortgage rates started the week abruptly higher mainly because markets now expect the Federal Open Market Committee to raise the target for the federal funds rate when its meeting concludes tomorrow. There'd been some uncertainty over the past couple weeks as remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and different FOMC members shifted the odds. But last week's inflation data truly firmed up expectations for a rate hike.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index, which measures the costs of wholesale goods and services, came in pretty much as predicted. But the components driving those overall numbers pointed to potential trouble ahead, with rising costs for fuel and energy pushing other prices higher.
The numbers in Friday's Consumer Price Index, measuring (you guessed it!) the prices you and I pay for goods and services, were almost precisely aligned with predictions. Except for one, the month-over-month core CPI. "Core" means everything but food and fuel, which are especially volatile. Removing those allows for a clearer look at how inflation's trending.
Month-over-month core CPI was a tenth of a percentage point above predictions. Those 10 basis points were enough to decisively swing markets' assessments of this week's Fed meeting's outcome. Last week, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike were just under 60%. This morning, they're topping 92%, according to CME FedWatch.
Warsh has made it extremely clear that he doesn't want the Fed's decisions to hang on any individual bit of data. But markets definitely seem to think Friday's CPI is the crucial piece of evidence that will firmly make the case for a quarter percentage point rate hike.
The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, but its changes to the federal funds rate essentially set the trend for borrowing costs. When it looks like the Federal Reserve is going to make a change, mortgage lenders tend to bake that into their rates. By the time the Fed's decision is actually announced, mortgage rates have already moved.
Given how relatively last minute the consensus has developed around a rate hike, mortgage lenders are playing catch up. Even though mortgage rates have been rising since the Fed's July meeting, it had been pretty gradual.
The one bit of good news is that if the Fed does indeed announce a rate hike tomorrow, it probably won't push mortgage rates any higher. But of course, the bad news is that's because they're already higher.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
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🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.44% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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