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Updated on April 3.
March hiring surpasses forecasts
Unemployment was 4.3% in March, compared to 4.4% in February, according to the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 3.
Total employment rose by 178,000, far exceeding economists’ more modest expectations of 60,000 jobs. Job growth in March marks a sharp rebound from February’s unexpected decline, which was revised down further to -133,000.
However, there's at least one sign of softening in the report: Long-term unemployment rose over the year by 322,000 people and accounted for roughly one-quarter of total unemployment in March.
Job gains:
- Health care: +76,000
- Construction: +26,000
- Transportation & warehousing: +21,000
- Social assistance: +14,000
Job losses:
- Federal government: −18,000 (down 355,000 since October 2024)
- Financial activities: −15,000
What are the weekly jobless claims?
Initial jobless claims fell for the week ending March 28, according to the report released on April 2.
Why it matters: The weekly jobless claims, or initial claims, are the number of unemployment insurance claims filed in the past week. They provide an indicator of the strength — or weakness — of the labor market.
Learn more about this week's jobless claims
Jobless claims were 202,000 for the week ending March 28, down by 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 211,000.
The new four-week moving average — a measurement of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the last four weeks — was 207,750, down by 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 210,750.
What's the insured unemployment rate?
Not all types of unemployment are included as part of the insured unemployment rate. It only includes "covered unemployment," as in people who receive unemployment benefits. Those who quit their jobs, for example, aren't included in the insured unemployment rate because they aren't eligible for unemployment benefits.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate — the rate of continuous covered unemployment claims divided by covered employment — was 1.2% for the week ending March 21, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
Job openings weaken again in February
There were 6.9 million job openings in February, down from 7.2 million January, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on March 31. The number of openings in February is roughly 360,000 lower than last year at the same time.
Here is what NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter had to say about the report:
Today’s labor market data affirms we entered the war with a steadily cooler labor market, one which is ice cold for workers, particularly if they’re hoping for a better job.
Hires, quits and layoffs are reported here for the entire month on a two-month delay, so we’re not seeing any impact here of the war in Iran. But we are getting a good baseline for how things looked just prior to this significant economic shock — stable but vulnerable.
The hiring rate has been below 3.5% since spring 2024. The last time it registered this low for any length of time was 10 years prior, in the wake of the Great Recession. It ticked lower yet this month to 3.1%, a depth last seen very briefly at the pit of the Covid recession.
Employers generally pull back on hiring well before they begin laying people off, but hiring has been in the tank for well over a year now. With the added impact of an energy shock and war, companies are facing even greater uncertainty as well as immediate tangible effects, like higher costs of living for workers and customers. If their input costs rise, they may be forced to reckon with tough decisions such as raising prices or reducing hours and workforce.
The unemployment rate ticked down slightly in March at 4.3% in March, compared to up slightly 4.4% in February, according to the March jobs report released on April 3 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Here’s what NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter had to say about the report:
Today’s increase is significant, but it doesn’t mean the labor market is back on track or growing robustly. The gains are highly concentrated in a few industries, not broadbased across the economy. And if the pattern holds, March’s gains could be undone in April.
Job growth has alternated from negative to positive every month since May of last year. Today’s unexpected leap may be a small surprise in magnitude, but not in direction, especially after last month’s significant decline. In fact, today’s release adjusted last month’s dip to an even greater depth. All told, these dramatic swings in either direction have netted out to roughly zero growth over the past 12 months.
This labor market data is not showing any impact of the war in Iran, yet. Should the conflict continue, we will likely begin to see those effects on the labor market around May or June. So this and the next jobs report will probably look like many of those in the recent past: mediocre — neither alarming nor impressive.
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The military conflict began on Feb. 28, and gas prices began rising very shortly thereafter. The jobs report is a snapshot of the labor market in the second week of March, when it was more likely the war would be swift. Prior to this, employers were already reluctant to expand. Hiring requires an investment and some confidence that business will be able to support the added expenses in coming weeks and months. Pervasive economic uncertainty for the past year wasn’t driving much employer confidence and war certainly won’t either.
If anything, for March and April, military conflict and the oil price shock will motivate employers to hold their ground on any major staffing decisions more firmly. Should the war continue, it will bring impacts to the real economy, including reduced consumer demand. It’s when that begins that we could see businesses move from inertia to making tough decisions, including workforce reductions.
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What is the current unemployment rate?
The current unemployment rate is 4.3% for March, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from February (4.4%).
The unemployment rate has risen since hitting a 50-year low of 3.4% in April 2023. Since May 2024, the unemployment rate has mostly stayed between 4% and 4.2%.
How the unemployment rate is calculated
The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate
Will unemployment go up soon?
The labor market showed signs of weakening throughout 2025 and that trend has continued into 2026.
The recent rise in unemployment was a byproduct of monetary policymakers’ effort to curb inflation by hiking interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. Now that inflation is consistently slowing, the Fed has taken steps to prevent unemployment from rising further.
The Fed cut rates in 2024 at its September, November and December meetings. It paused rates at every meeting so far in 2025, but has indicated that there could be some rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 before pausing in January. It also paused rates in March.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
Are wages increasing?
Wage growth is moderating from what it was a year ago but is still higher than it was pre-pandemic, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The three-month moving average of median hourly wage growth — when measured over the previous 12 months — has slowed from its peak in the summer of 2022.
For February, the three-month wage growth percent change was 3.7%, which is lower than the three-month moving average rate since February 2025 (4.3%).
What does the Employment Cost Index show?
Increases in compensation costs in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed from earlier in the year, according to the most recent quarterly BLS Employment Cost Index, which measures wage and salary growth. Wages and salaries, as well as benefits comprise total compensation costs.
The December 2025 report, released on Feb. 10, shows compensation costs increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Year-over-year measurements show that compensation cost increases held steady in Q4 2025 (3.4%), just under the pace of the first three quarters and slower than the rates seen throughout 2024.
- Q4 2025: 3.4%
- Q3 2025: 3.6%
- Q2 2025: 3.6%
- Q1 2025: 3.6%
- Q4 2024: 3.8%
- Q3 2024: 3.9%
- Q2 2024: 4.0%
- Q1 2024: 4.2%
For the 12-month period ending in December 2025, wages and salaries increased 3.3%, compared to 3.6% for September 2025.
Benefit costs had a slightly lower increase in the 12-month period ending in December (3.4%) compared to September (3.5%).
More key jobs data and what it means
What happened in March?
The economy grew 178,000 jobs in March, according to the BLS, while economists had expected more modest gains. Here’s how many jobs were added in previous months.
- -133,000 in February.
- 160,000 in January.
- 48,000 in December.
- 41,000 in November.
- -173,000 in October.
- 119,000 in September.
- -4,000 in August 2025.
- 72,000 in July 2025.
- -13,000 in June 2025.
- 19,000 in May 2025.
- 158,000 in April 2025.
- 120,000 in March 2025
- 102,000 in February 2025.
- 111,000 in January 2025.
- 323,000 in December 2024.
What is the labor force participation rate?
The labor force participation rate ticked down slightly to 61.9% in March, compared to 62.0% in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why it matters: The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.
The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate
Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.1%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.
How many job openings were there in February?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on March 31, shows job openings were 6.9 million in February compared to:
- 7.2 million in January 2026
- 6.6 million in December 2025
- 6.9 million in November 2025
- 7.4 million in October 2025
- 7.7 million in September 2025
- 7.2 million in August 2025
- 7.2 million in July 2025
- 7.4 million in June 2025
- 7.7 million in May 2025
- 7.4 million in April 2025
- 7.2 million in March 2025
- 7.5 million in February 2025
The seasonally adjusted job openings rate was 4.2% in February, down from 4.4% in January. The job openings rate in January 2025 was 4.4%.
The number of job openings fell in accommodation and food services (-211,000) and in mining and logging (-12,000).
What is the layoff rate?
The rate of layoffs in February (1.1%) was 0.1 percentage point higher than January (1%), according to the most recent JOLTS report. Layoffs rose in retail trade (+72,000). Layoffs fell in nondurable goods manufacturing (-26,000) and in the federal government (-3,000).
What is the quit rate?
The JOLTS report also shows the quit rate in February was 1.9%, down slightly from 2%. Quits fell in accommodation and food services (-119,000), wholesale trade (-35,000) and the federal government (-6,000). Quits rose in nondurable goods manufacturing (+21,000).
Why it matters: Economists say quit rates are a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch within their sector or outside it entirely.
The current quit rate is slightly below pre-pandemic levels after peaking at 3% in both Nov. 2021 and April 2022.
When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report will show data for April and it will be released on May 8.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
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