First Jobs Report Since Government Shutdown Shows Uptick In Jobs
The unemployment rate ticked up slightly in September. Because of the shutdown, there will be no October report.
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Updated · 9 min read
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Updated on Nov. 20.
Here’s what Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, had to say about the September jobs report — and the missing October report.
The Fed’s decision when they meet in December is a tricky one, but there’s a good chance that would be the case even with all of the data in-hand. With risks to both sides of their dual mandate at odds, they’re seeking clarity in an incomplete picture. We don’t yet know when the next batch of consumer inflation data will be released, and this will be the last jobs report before their meeting. Fortunately, they will get some insight into the actual state-of-play in layoffs when the October JOLTS report is released the first day they convene.
Economic data, and especially monthly data subject to revisions, shouldn’t be looked at in a vacuum. While today’s BLS data shows a healthy number of jobs were added to the economy in September, August numbers were revised to show overall job losses. Taken together, along with so much of the private sector data we’ve been watching during the federal data drought, today’s jobs report offers little surprising information.
The unemployment rate ticked up just slightly, to a level we haven’t seen since 2021, when we were rebuilding after the dramatic COVID recession. It isn’t at an alarming place, but certainly indicates the labor market continues a slow chill.
The big question is: What happened in October? Today’s data is dated. In absence of some of the October data, it does get us closer to connecting the dots, but because we’re skipping the most recent month’s unemployment rate entirely, we could see that rate jump more than a fraction in the next release.
Private jobs data shows steady labor market
Because of the government shutdown, agencies that collect and publish labor market data are on pause. That means no new unemployment figures, JOLTS data or weekly jobless claims reports will be released.
But private jobs data is still available. Here’s what Renter has to say about the latest ADP Employment Report, released on Nov. 5:
In the absence of federal labor market data in a week we’d normally be awash, private labor market data becomes all the more important in judging the health and trajectory of the economy. None of these alternate labor market data sources capture the same data as the surveys that go into the monthly BLS reports, but they can collectively give us a picture of how things are going.
The labor market is holding steady despite recent cooling. Private employment grew enough in some industries last month to give us a positive overall read across the board, despite pockets of job losses. This likely doesn’t mean much for job seekers. Though unemployment likely remains on the low side, finding a job has been tough and getting trickier for some time now.
When employers are reluctant to hire, as many of them are now, active job seekers — whether unemployed or hoping for greener pastures — can feel stuck. This inertia can weigh on workers, as even in the rosier cases, they’re unable to advance their career the way they’d like. And in the worst cases, they’re unable to find a job at all. Under this environment we can expect consumer sentiment about the labor market, and likely the overall economy, to stay in the doldrums.
What are the weekly jobless claims?
Initial jobless claims fell for the week ending Nov. 15, according to the report released on Nov. 20.
Why it matters: The weekly jobless claims, or initial claims, are the number of unemployment insurance claims filed in the past week. They provide an indicator of the strength — or weakness — of the labor market.
Learn more about this week's jobless claims
Jobless claims were 220,000 for the week ending Nov. 15, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 228,000.
The new four-week moving average — a measurement of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the last four weeks — was 224,250 down by 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 227,250.
What's the insured unemployment rate?
Not all types of unemployment are included as part of the insured unemployment rate. It only includes "covered unemployment," as in people who receive unemployment benefits. Those who quit their jobs, for example, aren't included in the insured unemployment rate because they aren't eligible for unemployment benefits.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate — the rate of continuous covered unemployment claims divided by covered employment — remained at 1.3% for the week ending Nov. 8, when compared to the previous week’s unrevised rate.
The unemployment rate ticked up again to 4.4%, compared to 4.3% in August and 4.2% in July, according to the delayed September jobs report released on Nov. 20 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Here are some other takeaways from the report:
- Job gains came in above expectations in September with a total of 119,000. The consensus forecast was an increase of 50,000, according to Morningstar, an investing firm.
- Job gains were revised from 22,000 to a net loss of 4,000 in August and from 79,000 to 72,000 in July.
- Employment rose in health care (+43,000) food services and drinking places (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000).
- For the eighth month in a row, employment went down in the federal government (-3,000) due to mass federal workforce cuts made earlier this year by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Employees on paid leave or receiving severance are considered employed, which means the full effect of the cuts are yet to show up in the report. Employment also went down in transportation and warehousing (-25,000).
- Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employee payrolls rose by 3.8% in September over the past 12 months, compared to a 3.7% 12-month increase reported in August 2025.
» Stay informed: Check out our news hub for all the latest.
What the latest job market data means for you
The September jobs report shows that the labor market is continuing to cool, albeit slowly.
Wage growth (3.7%) remains above inflation growth (2.6%), which means consumers are more likely to remain resilient in the face of price increases — that is, unless there are price shocks. The effect of tariffs on prices haven’t fully set in so it’s unclear how that might impact inflation growth.
There are some vulnerabilities in the job market continuing to trend, including more workers remaining in long-term unemployment, which shows workers may be having more difficulty re-entering the job market. The labor force participation rate also remains sluggish.
Both the health care and social assistance sectors showed strong labor demand, while the number of federal government jobs continued to wane.
Overall, the latest data reflects growing caution among employers as the projected economic picture remains hazy.
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What is the current unemployment rate?
The current unemployment rate is 4.4% for September, a 0.1 percentage point increase from August (4.3%). The rate is higher than unemployment rates during 2023 and 2024.
The unemployment rate has risen since hitting a 50-year low of 3.4% in April 2023. Since May 2024, the unemployment rate has mostly stayed between 4% and 4.2%.
How the unemployment rate is calculated
The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate
Will unemployment go up soon?
The labor market has been showing signs of weakening in recent months.
The recent rise in unemployment was a byproduct of monetary policymakers’ effort to curb inflation by hiking interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. Now that inflation is consistently slowing, the Fed has taken steps to prevent unemployment from rising further.
The Fed cut rates in 2024 at its September, November and December meetings. It paused rates at every meeting so far in 2025, but has indicated that there could be some rate cuts in 2025.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
Are wages increasing?
Wage growth is moderating from what it was a year ago but is still higher than it was pre-pandemic, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The three-month moving average of median hourly wage growth — when measured over the previous 12 months — has slowed from its peak in the summer of 2022.
For June, the three-month wage growth percent change was 4.2%, which is in line with the three-month moving average rate since November 2024.
The 12-month moving average for all workers — part-time and full-time — was 4.3% in June, a 0.1 percentage point decline from May. By comparison, the percent change for June 2024 from a year prior was 5.1%. If you look back even further, at the percent change for June 2020 from a year prior, the rate was 3.6%.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
Below, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data for June shows a steady three-month moving average of wage growth compared to peak rates in June 2022 and July 2022.
What does the Employment Cost Index show?
Increases in compensation costs in the second quarter of 2025 were the same as the first quarter, according to the most recent quarterly BLS Employment Cost Index, which measures wage and salary growth. Wages and salaries, as well as benefits comprise total compensation costs.
The July 31 report shows compensation costs increased by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2025, matching the increase in the first quarter.
Year-over-year measurements show that compensation cost increases held steady in Q2 2025 (3.6%), matching the pace of the first quarter, but still slower than the rates seen throughout 2024.
- Q1 2025: 3.6%
- Q4 2024: 3.8%
- Q3 2024: 3.9%
- Q2 2024: 4.0%
- Q1 2024: 4.2%
For the 12-month period ending in June 2025, wages and salaries increased 3.6%, a decrease from 4.2% in the 12-month period ending in June 2024.
Benefit costs had a lower increase in the 12-month period ending in June (3.5%) compared to June 2024 (3.8%).
More key jobs data and what it means
How many jobs were added in September?
The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, according to the BLS, well above expected gains. Here’s how many jobs were added in previous months.
- -4,000 in August 2025.
- 72,000 in July 2025.
- -13,000 in June 2025.
- 19,000 in May 2025.
- 158,000 in April 2025.
- 120,000 in March 2025
- 102,000 in February 2025.
- 111,000 in January 2025.
- 323,000 in December 2024.
- 261,000 in November 2024
- 159,068 in October 2024
- 159,025 in September 2024
- 158,770 in August 2024
- 144,000 in July 2024
What is the labor force participation rate?
The labor force participation rate went up slightly at 62.4% in September, compared to 62.3% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why it matters: The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.
The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate
Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.1%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.
How many job openings were there in August?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on Sept. 30, shows job openings were 7.2 million in August, unchanged from July. The number of openings in August is roughly 500,000 lower than last year at the same time.
- 7.2 million in July
- 7.4 million in June
- 7.7 million in May
- 7.4 million in April
- 7.2 million in March
- 7.5 million in February
- 7.8 million January
- 7.5 million in December
- 8 million in November
- 7.6 million in October
- 7.1 million in September
- 7.7 million in August 2024
- 7.5 million in July 2024
The seasonally adjusted job openings rate was also unchanged from August at 4.3%. By comparison, the job openings rate in August 2024 was 4.6%.
The number of job openings went down in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000).
What is the layoff rate?
The rate of layoffs in August remained unchanged from July at 1.1%, according to the most recent JOLTS report. Layoffs and discharges went down in wholesale trade (-36,000) and in federal government (-4,000).
What is the quit rate?
The JOLTS report also shows the quit rate in August was 1.9%, down slightly from 2.0% in July. Quits went down in accommodation and food services (-113,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-48,000).
Why it matters: Economists say quit rates are a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch within their sector or outside it entirely.
The current quit rate is consistent with pre-pandemic levels after peaking at 3% in both Nov. 2021 and April 2022.
When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report will show data for November and it will be released on Dec. 16.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
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