How the Market Has Performed During and After Previous Government Shutdowns
The ongoing government shutdown is now the longest in history. Here's what previous shutdowns have meant for markets.
Many, or all, of the products featured on this page are from our advertising partners who compensate us when you take certain actions on our website or click to take an action on their website. However, this does not influence our evaluations. Our opinions are our own. Here is a list of our partners and here's how we make money.
The investing information provided on this page is for educational purposes only. NerdWallet, Inc. does not offer advisory or brokerage services, nor does it recommend or advise investors to buy or sell particular stocks, securities or other investments.
The U.S. government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 is now the longest in history. How long will it last, and what does it mean for investors?
How long will the shutdown last? Bettors think it could be a while
At the time of last update, the Senate has voted 14 times on resolutions to reopen the government, so far without success. On Nov. 6, it surpassed the 35-day shutdown of December 2018 and January 2019 to become the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, currently shows a 78% chance that the shutdown will last until at least Nov. 12, and a 49% chance it will last until at least Nov. 16.
How has the market performed during previous shutdowns?
Below is a table showing the S&P 500 index’s returns during every federal government shutdown that has lasted more than one week.
Shutdown dates & length | S&P 500 return during shutdown | S&P 500 return in month after shutdown |
|---|---|---|
Dec. 16, 1995 - Jan. 6, 1996 (21 days) | -0.03% | 4.01% |
Oct. 1, 2013 - Oct. 17, 2013 (17 days) | 2.33% | 4.54% |
Dec. 22, 2018 - Jan. 25, 2019 (35 days) | 10.07% | 5.09% |
Oct. 1, 2025 - present (36 days, ongoing) | 1.97% | TBD |
Sources: Yahoo Finance and Congress.gov. Returns are based on opening prices on the first business day of each period and closing prices on the last business day. Data is current as of Nov. 6, 2025, and is intended for informational purposes only.
Bottom line: What the shutdown means for investors
Of the three previous shutdowns that have lasted more than a week, two have had positive returns during the shutdown, and all three have had positive returns in the month after the shutdown.
It’s too early to predict what the market will do after the end of the current shutdown — no one knows how long it’ll last, after all. But history suggests that there’s no reason for long-term investors to change course because of a shutdown. And if you’re not currently invested in index funds, now may be as good a time as any to buy them if you're investing for the long term.
» MORE: Best brokers for ETF investing