Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Lows: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?
Consumer sentiment, also known as consumer confidence, measures how U.S. consumers feel about the economy, wages, jobs and their personal finances.
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Updated on May 16.
Current consumer sentiment indexes:
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment’s preliminary reading for May registered at 50.8, down from its final April reading of 52.2, according to the latest survey released on May 16. The university’s Index of Current Economic Conditions decreased to 57.6 in May, compared to 59.8 in April, while the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 46.5 in May, compared to 47.3 in April. The Consumer Sentiment index is just barely higher than its all-time historic low of 50 in June 2022.
Current consumer sentiment indexes:
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment’s final reading for April registered at 52.2, down from its final March reading of 57, according to the latest survey released on April 25. The university’s Index of Current Economic Conditions decreased to 59.8 in April, compared to 63.8 in March, while the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 47.3 in April, compared to 52.6 in the previous month. The Consumer Sentiment index sits just above its all-time historic low of 50 in June 2022.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86 in April, the latest report released on April 29 shows. By comparison, in March the CCI was 93.9. The board’s Present Situation Index — measuring consumers’ current assessment of business and labor market conditions — decreased to 133.5 from 134.4 in March. The Expectations Index — measuring consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — fell to 54.4 — the lowest level in nearly 14 years. The Expectations Index was 66.9 in the previous month. When the Expectations Index falls below the threshold of 80 — as it did in February, March and April — it signals a recession may be ahead.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for April showed that inflation expectations are mixed, confidence in the labor market is falling, and household financial outlooks are sinking. Consumers still expect prices to rise over the next year, including home prices. gas, rent, college tuition, medical care and food. But they’ve grown increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook over the next three years — in fact, Inflation worries are at their highest point since 2022. Expectations for income growth are at their lowest levels since April 2021. The mean probability of higher unemployment in the next year is at the highest level since April 2020. People don’t expect to lose their job, but if they did, their confidence that they’d be able to get a new job quickly is at a four-year low. The share of households who think their finances are worse now than 12 months ago has risen, as is the share of those who think they’ll be worse off in the next year.
What is consumer sentiment?
Consumer sentiment, also known as consumer confidence, is an index of how U.S. consumers are feeling about the current and future state of the economy, and all that folds into the economy: the job market, wages, business conditions and their personal finances. It’s a valuable tool for economists, as consumer sentiment can be used as an early predictor of economic changes.
How people feel about the economy can directly impact the economy, because consumers' attitudes often affect how much they spend on things like food, transportation, household goods, entertainment and more. In 2023, consumers’ personal spending made up 67.9% of the U.S. GDP, or gross domestic product, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That’s a significant majority of the nation’s GDP, so keeping a close eye on consumer sentiment is key in foreseeing potential economic slumps or rallies.
When the economy is in a recession, consumer sentiment falls. On the flip side, when the economy is expanding, consumer sentiment rises. The index does typically peak before a recession, though. Unlike other indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), consumer sentiment isn’t calculated using spending data or hard figures. Instead, economists rely on two major surveys of consumer confidence: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. Each survey collects the general attitudes and opinions of hundreds of U.S. consumers. Then, those opinions are assigned numeric values and aggregated into one number, or index.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment
The Index of Consumer Sentiment is one of three indexes derived from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which started in 1946. Originally conducted annually, the surveys switched to a monthly cadence in 1978. The surveys have a sample size of roughly 600 people selected randomly from the 48 adjoining U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
The surveys include roughly 50 questions covering personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. From those surveyed, three indexes are produced: the Index of Consumer Sentiment, the Index of Consumer Expectations and the Index of Current Economic Conditions.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment is the most commonly cited index of the bunch. It’s derived from these five questions:
"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now, looking ahead: Do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole. Do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
Historically, the surveys have been conducted by phone. Starting in July 2024, they'll be conducted online, with researchers aiming for 900 to 1,000 respondents.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey was launched in 1967 as a mail survey conducted every other month. Today, the survey is conducted online, on a monthly basis, with a sample size of roughly 3,000 respondents.
The Conference Board issues a five-question survey to calculate three distinct indexes: the Consumer Confidence Index, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index. Once the surveys have been completed, each question is given a relative value. Then, those values are compared against their relative values from 1985 — the survey’s benchmark year, with an index set at 100.
The Consumer Confidence Index is the average index for all five questions. The Present Situation Index is calculated using the average indexes for the first two questions, and the remaining three questions determine the Expectations Index.
Present Situation Index
Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions.
Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions.
Expectations Index
Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.
Consumer Confidence Index
This is the average index for all five questions above.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations focuses on expectations about economic outcomes.
The survey, which is conducted by NielsenIQ, launched in 2013. It’s an internet-based survey that asks a rotating panel of 1,300 heads-of-household about their expectations of the economy, as well as their own personal finances related to the following categories:
Inflation:
Inflation expectations.
Inflation uncertainty.
Probability of different inflation outcomes.
Home price change expectations.
Home price change uncertainty.
Commodity price change expectations.
Labor market:
Earnings growth expectations.
Earnings growth uncertainty.
Job separation expectations.
Job finding expectations.
Moving expectations.
Expectations of higher unemployment.
Household finance:
Household income growth expectations.
Household spending growth expectations.
Change in taxes.
Change in credit availability.
Debt delinquency expectations.
Expectations of higher interest rate on savings accounts.
Household financial situation.
Expectations of higher stock prices.
Government debt growth expectations.
What is consumer sentiment like right now?
The first reading for May from the University of Michigan released on May 16 shows:
The Index of Consumer Sentiment went down to 50.2, compared to its April reading of 52.2
Current Economic Conditions registered at 57.6 compared to 59.8 in April.
The Index of Consumer Expectations was at 46.5 compared to 47.3 in April.
Data for April from the Conference Board released on April 29 shows:
The Consumer Confidence Index registered at 86 in April down from 93.9 in March.
The Present Situation Index decreased to 133.5 from 134.4 in March.
The Expectations Index fell to 54.4 in April from 66.9 in March.
The highlights for April from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations released on May 8 shows:
Inflation. Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months were unchanged at 3.6%, compared to the previous month.But iInflation expectations for the three-year horizon went up by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2% — the highest level since July 2022. Expectations for the five-year horizon declined by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7%.
Commodity prices. Year ahead price expectations increased in multiple categories including medical care (up 0.8 percentage point to 8.7%); rent (up 1.8 percentage point to 9%); gas (up 0.3 percentage point to 3.5%); and the cost of a college education (up 2.4 percentage points to 9.1%). The price of food declined by 0.1 percentage point to 5.1%.
Home price growth. Median year-ahead home price growth expectations went up by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%.
Earnings expectations. Median one-year-ahead expectations for earnings growth went down by 0.3 percentage point to 2.5% — the lowest since December 2023.
Unemployment expectations. The mean probability that the unemployment rate will increase a year from now increased by 0.1 percentage point to 44.1% — the highest reading since April 2020.
Probability of job loss. The mean expectation of job loss over the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.3%.
Probability of quitting. The mean expectation of quitting a job over the next 12 months went up by 0.2 percentage point to 18.2%.
Probability of finding a job. The mean expectation of finding a job over the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 49.2% — the lowest level since March 2021.
Household spending growth. Median expectations of household spending growth over the next year went up by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%.
Credit access. Households reported it is slightly easier to get credit now compared to a year ago, but they expect it will still be hard to get credit in the next year.
When do the next consumer sentiment reports come out?
The University of Michigan’s next set of results for its Surveys of Consumers will be released on Friday, May 16. The Conference Board will release its next Consumer Confidence Survey on Tuesday, May 27. The New York Fed will release its next Survey of Consumer Expectations on June 9.