Consumer Sentiment: Numbers Tick Up on Easing Gas Prices

Consumer sentiment, also known as consumer confidence, measures how U.S. consumers feel about the economy, wages, jobs and their personal finances.

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Updated Jul 7, 2026

Updated on July 7.

Findings for June from the three major consumer sentiment indexes show consumers' easing fears about the long-term impacts of the war in Iran, especially as gas prices level off. But cost of living is still top of mind for more than half of consumers.

New York Fed: Households feel better off than a year ago

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for June, released on July 7, shows short-term inflation expectations ticked up by 0.2 percentage point while medium and longer-term held steady. Perceptions about the current financial situation improved from a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation compared to those reporting a worse one. However, more respondents said they expect it will be harder to get credit in the next year. The perceived likelihood of losing a job in the next 12 months decreased, as did the perceived probability of finding another job in the event of job loss increased.

The survey was fielded from June 1 to June 30.

Conference Board: Confidence rises in June

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index report for June (released on June 30) ticked up by 0.6 point to 91.2 from a revised index of 90.6 in May.

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, in a release.

The board’s Present Situation Index — measuring consumers’ current assessment of business and labor market conditions — fell by 3.0 points to 116.4 in May.

The Expectations Index — measuring consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — rose by 3.0 points to 74.4.

University of Michigan: Sentiment rises slightly in June

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased from May to June, according to the final results for the month released on June 26. The data indicate consumer sentiment is up about 4.7 index points (or 10.5%) to 49.5, based on data released on June 26.

The index is still down from 49.8 in April, according to the survey. Current Economic Conditions registered at 47.7 in June, compared to 45.8 in May. The Index of Consumer Expectations registered at 50.7 for June, compared to 44.1 for May — the prior record low.

Easing gas prices early in the month drove a slight uptick in index points, said Joanne Hsu, who directs consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, in a news release.

Concerns over gas prices have been replaced by larger cost of living concerns.

“The cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers’ minds; for the third straight month, over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing down their personal finances,” said Hsu.

Here’s what Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet’s senior economist, had to say about the report:

People are generally feeling better about the economy this month, but they’re not feeling entirely good. An improvement in consumer economic sentiment can do a lot for household finances. Generally speaking, you behave a bit differently with your money when you have a sense that things are going OK. While the connection between sentiment and behavior isn’t as clear now as it was before the pandemic, there’s little doubt that a collective sigh about potential resolution to war is better for the economy than broad uncertainty about its end.

More findings below.

What is consumer sentiment?

Consumer sentiment, also known as consumer confidence, is an index of how U.S. consumers are feeling about the current and future state of the economy, and all that folds into the economy: the job market, wages, business conditions and their personal finances. It’s a valuable tool for economists, as consumer sentiment can be used as an early predictor of economic changes.

How people feel about the economy can directly impact the economy, because consumers' attitudes often affect how much they spend on things like food, transportation, household goods, entertainment and more.

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In 2023, consumers’ personal spending made up 67.9% of the U.S. GDP, or gross domestic product, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That’s a significant majority of the nation’s GDP, so keeping a close eye on consumer sentiment is key in foreseeing potential economic slumps or rallies.

When the economy is in a recession, consumer sentiment falls. On the flip side, when the economy is expanding, consumer sentiment rises. The index does typically peak before a recession, though.

Unlike other indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), consumer sentiment isn’t calculated using spending data or hard figures. Instead, economists rely on two major surveys of consumer confidence: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

Each survey collects the general attitudes and opinions of hundreds of U.S. consumers. Then, those opinions are assigned numeric values and aggregated into one number, or index.

What is consumer sentiment like right now?

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment

Final results for June from the University of Michigan, released on June 26, show:

The Index of Consumer Sentiment registered at 49.5, up from 44.8 for May.
Current Economic Conditions registered at 47.7, up from 45.8 for May.
The Index of Consumer Expectations registered at 50.7, up from 44.1 for May.

How the University of Michigan creates its index

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is one of three indexes derived from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which started in 1946. Originally conducted annually, the surveys switched to a monthly cadence in 1978. The surveys have a sample size of roughly 600 people selected randomly from the 48 adjoining U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

The surveys include roughly 50 questions covering personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. From those surveyed, three indexes are produced: the Index of Consumer Sentiment, the Index of Consumer Expectations and the Index of Current Economic Conditions.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is the most commonly cited index of the bunch. It’s derived from these five questions:

"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
"Now, looking ahead: Do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
"Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole. Do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

Historically, the surveys have been conducted by phone. Starting in July 2024, they'll be conducted online, with researchers aiming for 900 to 1,000 respondents.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index

Conference Board data for June, released on June 30, shows:

The Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 point for June to 91.2.
The Present Situation Index fell by 3.0 points to 116.4.
The Expectations Index rose by 3.0 points to 74.4.

How the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index comes together

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey was launched in 1967 as a mail survey conducted every other month. Today, the survey is conducted online, on a monthly basis, with a sample size of roughly 3,000 respondents.

The Conference Board issues a five-question survey to calculate three distinct indexes: the Consumer Confidence Index, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index. Once the surveys have been completed, each question is given a relative value. Then, those values are compared against their relative values from 1985 — the survey’s benchmark year, with an index set at 100.

The Consumer Confidence Index is the average index for all five questions. The Present Situation Index is calculated using the average indexes for the first two questions, and the remaining three questions determine the Expectations Index.

Present Situation Index

Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions.
Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions.

Expectations Index

Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.
Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.

Consumer Confidence Index

This is the average index for all five questions above.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations

Some highlights for June from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on July 7:

Inflation. Median one-year inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7%, while medium-term expectations grew to 3.3% and longer-term expectations remained steady at 3.0%.
Gas prices. Year-ahead gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 percentage points to 1.5% — the lowest since August 2022.
Unemployment expectations. The mean probability that unemployment will be higher a year from now fell by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7%.
Household spending growth. Median spending growth expectations held steady at 5.0%.
Delinquency. The probability of missing a minimum debt payment fell to 10.8% — the lowest reading since April 2023.
Current financial situation. The share of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago was smaller than the share of households reporting a better financial situation.

How the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts its survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations focuses on expectations about economic outcomes.

The survey, which is conducted by NielsenIQ, launched in 2013. It’s an internet-based survey that asks a rotating panel of 1,300 heads-of-household about their expectations of the economy, as well as their own personal finances related to the following categories:

Inflation:

Inflation expectations.
Inflation uncertainty.
Probability of different inflation outcomes.
Home price change expectations.
Home price change uncertainty.
Commodity price change expectations.

Labor market:

Earnings growth expectations.
Earnings growth uncertainty.
Job separation expectations.
Job finding expectations.
Moving expectations.
Expectations of higher unemployment.

Household finance:

Household income growth expectations. Household spending growth expectations. Change in taxes. Change in credit availability. Debt delinquency expectations. Expectations of higher interest rate on savings accounts. Household financial situation.Expectations of higher stock prices. Government debt growth expectations.

» MORE: Current rate of inflation and why it matters