Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Rates on fixed-rate home loans have dropped slightly. Mortgage rates may fall a little lower in July.

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Mortgage rates this week

Fixed mortgage interest rates fell in the week ending July 3. Rates for 30-year fixed home loans continued a five-week streak of downward trajectory.

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.74% APR, down 10 basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.76% APR, down 17 basis points from the previous week's average.

  • The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.31% APR, up 19 basis points from the previous week's average.

The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to its lowest point since March last week, giving buyers more room in their budget to shop for homes. According to one Redfin analysis, home buyers with a $3,000 monthly housing budget have gained $16,000 in purchasing power over the past five weeks. For context, the national median mortgage payment was $2,211 as of May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Rates could continue to trickle downward, though they’re unlikely to stray very far from where they currently are throughout the first half of July. Activity in the back half of the month will be influenced by the results of the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on July 15. If it shows that inflation is slowing down, rates will most likely continue to drop.

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July mortgage rate forecast

Mortgage rates are likely to fall a little lower in July, continuing a gradual drop that began in June.

So far, inflation hasn't increased following the imposition of higher tariffs, and financial markets seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates in the second half of the year. Those two factors could combine to decrease mortgage rates or keep them more or less unchanged.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates won't change much over the next three months. The trade association forecasts that the 30-year mortgage will average 6.8% from July through September, about the same as the average from April through June.

Mortgage securitizer Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to drop in the third quarter, averaging 6.6%.

Both organizations predict mortgage rates to decline gradually through the first half of 2026.

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